Fourth Down Data
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Boise State

BroncosBalanced
Pac-12 Conference11-3#24 (+11.63)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

82· BOverall
Offense
81· BRating
64· CPer play
69· CConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
75· BPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
22· DRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.087
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.019
Defensive EPA/play
-0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.134
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.059
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.42

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.89
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#24
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#22
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#57
model 33 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Boise State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
79th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
65th
Defensive EPA/play
76th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
66th
Defensive havoc
62th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas State2022OA +0.082 / +0.085similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3742James Madison2024OA -0.011 / +0.047similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3703North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3594Arizona2025OA +0.135 / +0.110similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3585Penn State2026OA +0.030 / +0.032similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense355

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Troy24-13W+7.0W62.5O
2@ Washington State44-47L+7.5W57.5O
3vs New Mexico28-14W-16.0L56U
4vs Virginia23-42L-13.5L50O
6@ BYU24-7W-7.0W46U
7@ San Diego State31-14W+4.5W47U
8vs Wyoming24-14W-15.5L45U
9@ Utah State41-14W-13.0W52O
10vs Nevada41-14W-20.0W63U
11@ Colorado State59-52W-6.5W59.5O
12vs Air Force44-19W-17.5W60O
13@ Fresno State17-28L-6.5L50U
14vs Fresno State17-14W-10.0L50.5U
16@ Oregon38-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS6-1
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off68thRush Off54thRed Zone Off22th3rd Down Off52thPass Def98thRush Def38thRed Zone Def4th3rd Down Def81th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00759th-0.10173th
Red Zone-0.11822th+0.2984th
Third Down+0.00552th-0.22381th
No Garbage Time+0.02262th-0.13078th
First Half-0.00156th-0.13478th
Second Half+0.01562th-0.06564th
Early Downs+0.02171th-0.03256th
Passing Downs+0.07068th-0.28198th
Standard Downs-0.02654th-0.00238th
Goal to Go-0.3895th+0.3337th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.8%Rush 54.2%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
19.5%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
406.1
Pts/Drive
2.42
3rd Down%
45.8%
3&Out%
19.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Boise State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoise StateOpponents
Scoring
Points455320
Points / Game32.522.9
First Downs
Total296250
Rushing10998
Passing164134
Penalty2318
Rushing
Attempts532495
Yards2,0091,683
Yards / Carry3.83.4
Yards / Game143.5120.2
Touchdowns2520
Passing
Attempts449470
Completions281280
Completion %62.6%59.6%
Yards3,6772,974
Yards / Attempt8.26.3
Touchdowns2617
Interceptions715
Passer Rating147.36118.28
Total Offense
Plays981965
Yards5,6864,657
Yards / Play5.84.8
Yards / Game406.1332.6
Punt Returns
Returns3017
Yards31063
Average10.33.7
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns3730
Yards917659
Average24.822.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6383
Yards2,5493,343
Average40.540.3
Interception Returns
Returns157
Yards225210
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles1120
Lost611
Penalties
Penalties8262
Yards700585
Yards / Game50.041.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1528:45
Third Downs
Attempts203204
Conversions9378
Conversion %45.8%38.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1723
Conversions314
Conversion %17.6%60.9%
Red Zone
Trips6340
Scores (TD + FG)5135
Score %81.0%87.5%
Touchdowns3629
TD %57.1%72.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2311
Made189
Pct78.3%81.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5739
Made5739
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →