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SYR
Syracuse
OrangeBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference10-3#6 (+10.34)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
95· AOverall
Offense
80· BRating
54· CPer play
73· BConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
66· CPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
64· C3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.062
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.018
Defensive EPA/play
-0.055
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
43.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.072
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.63
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.73
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.20
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#6
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#15
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 60 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense51th
Opp-adjusted defense73th
Offensive EPA/play55th
Defensive EPA/play66th
Offensive success rate73th
Explosiveness24th
Defensive havoc72th
Points per drive82th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Missouri2024OA +0.015 / +0.040similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense4102Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, passing offense3893South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: rushing offense, pass defense, havoc rate3884Virginia2025OA -0.007 / +0.085similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, run defense3825Louisiana Tech2019OA -0.057 / +0.033similar: run defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate379
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Western Michigan | 55-42 | W | -3.0 | W | 67.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Wagner | 62-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs Florida State | 30-7 | W | +3.5 | W | 69 | U |
| 4 | vs UConn | 51-21 | W | -30.5 | L | 74.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Clemson | 23-27 | L | +24.5 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Pittsburgh | 37-44 | L | -3.5 | L | 58 | O |
| 8 | vs North Carolina | 40-37 | W | -9.5 | L | 67 | O |
| 9 | vs NC State | 51-41 | W | +2.0 | W | 65 | O |
| 10 | @ Wake Forest | 41-24 | W | -6.0 | W | 77 | U |
| 11 | vs Louisville | 54-23 | W | -20.0 | W | 68.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Notre Dame | 3-36 | L | +10.0 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Boston College | 42-21 | W | +5.0 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 18 | vs West Virginia | 34-18 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-4
63.6%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.000 | 48th | -0.036 | 61th |
| Red Zone | +0.026 | 52th | -0.168 | 85th |
| Third Down | +0.112 | 64th | -0.239 | 95th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.019 | 55th | -0.040 | 60th |
| First Half | +0.006 | 45th | -0.148 | 87th |
| Second Half | -0.006 | 46th | +0.086 | 22th |
| Early Downs | +0.012 | 62th | +0.035 | 29th |
| Passing Downs | -0.040 | 33th | -0.137 | 83th |
| Standard Downs | +0.019 | 58th | +0.019 | 37th |
| Goal to Go | +0.167 | 71th | -0.037 | 69th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.4%Rush 56.6%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
464.8
Pts/Drive
2.63
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
18.8%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Syracuse | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 523 | 351 |
| Points / Game | 40.2 | 27.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 304 | 258 |
| Rushing | 141 | 103 |
| Passing | 134 | 133 |
| Penalty | 29 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 602 | 488 |
| Yards | 2,601 | 2,112 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 200.1 | 162.5 |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 461 | 463 |
| Completions | 271 | 255 |
| Completion % | 58.8% | 55.1% |
| Yards | 3,441 | 3,433 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 18 |
| Passer Rating | 132.03 | 123.84 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,063 | 951 |
| Yards | 6,042 | 5,545 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 464.8 | 426.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 16 |
| Yards | 356 | 158 |
| Average | 14.8 | 9.9 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 22 |
| Yards | 560 | 403 |
| Average | 19.3 | 18.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 80 |
| Yards | 2,911 | 3,222 |
| Average | 42.8 | 40.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 12 |
| Yards | 93 | 139 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 24 |
| Lost | 6 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 94 | 99 |
| Yards | 768 | 799 |
| Yards / Game | 59.1 | 61.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:29 | 29:31 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 211 | 196 |
| Conversions | 84 | 56 |
| Conversion % | 39.8% | 28.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 25 |
| Conversions | 10 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 55.6% | 44.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 75 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 67 | 39 |
| Score % | 89.3% | 76.5% |
| Touchdowns | 45 | 26 |
| TD % | 60.0% | 51.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 26 |
| Made | 30 | 20 |
| Pct | 88.2% | 76.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 61 | 42 |
| Made | 61 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 92.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.