Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
FRES

Fresno State

BulldogsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference10-4#55 (+3.29)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

59· COverall
Offense
34· DRating
46· CPer play
63· CConsistency
20· DBig plays
Defense
75· BRating
83· BPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.068
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.032
Defensive EPA/play
-0.148
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.116
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.020
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.06

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.81
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.18
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#55
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 11 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Fresno State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
34th
Opp-adjusted defense
71th
Offensive EPA/play
47th
Defensive EPA/play
84th
Offensive success rate
59th
Explosiveness
20th
Defensive havoc
74th
Points per drive
45th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Vanderbilt2026OA -0.037 / -0.004similar: run defense, defensive success rate, passing offense4092Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive EPA4003Iowa2019OA -0.062 / +0.147similar: offensive success rate, run defense, passing offense3704Buffalo2024OA -0.016 / +0.027similar: run defense, havoc rate, defensive EPA3645Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense362

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Incarnate Word66-0W+3.0W51.5O
2@ Alabama10-41L+42.5W54U
3@ Washington16-48L+34.5W56O
5vs Nevada41-21W-7.5W59O
6@ San José State27-10W-17.0P60U
7vs New Mexico38-0W+2.5W55U
8@ San Diego State27-3W+6.5W49.5U
9vs UNLV16-26L-22.0L58.5U
10vs BYU20-13W-10.0L48.5U
11@ Hawai'i31-21W-9.5W52.5U
12@ Wyoming13-7W-2.0W39.5U
13vs Boise State28-17W+6.5W50U
14@ Boise State14-17L+10.0W50.5U
17@ Houston33-27W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-2-1
83.3%
O/U Record
3-10
23.1%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS7-0
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS7-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off14thRush Off73thRed Zone Off30th3rd Down Off10thPass Def90thRush Def77thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def82th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02248th-0.13983th
Red Zone-0.07930th+0.02344th
Third Down-0.34910th-0.22982th
No Garbage Time-0.02247th-0.14383th
First Half+0.06174th-0.11672th
Second Half-0.11023th-0.16186th
Early Downs+0.07085th-0.06465th
Passing Downs-0.17014th-0.19890th
Standard Downs+0.04673th-0.10877th
Goal to Go+0.05963th-0.31086th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.9%Rush 54.1%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
392.9
Pts/Drive
2.06
3rd Down%
35.6%
3&Out%
24.7%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Fresno State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFresno StateOpponents
Scoring
Points380251
Points / Game27.117.9
First Downs
Total270239
Rushing12392
Passing131132
Penalty1615
Rushing
Attempts515463
Yards2,1701,588
Yards / Carry4.23.4
Yards / Game155.0113.4
Touchdowns2213
Passing
Attempts437461
Completions268275
Completion %61.3%59.7%
Yards3,3312,900
Yards / Attempt7.66.3
Touchdowns1914
Interceptions79
Passer Rating136.50118.61
Total Offense
Plays952924
Yards5,5014,488
Yards / Play5.84.9
Yards / Game392.9320.6
Punt Returns
Returns1613
Yards103188
Average6.414.5
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3939
Yards844707
Average21.618.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6878
Yards2,8733,310
Average42.342.4
Interception Returns
Returns97
Yards82101
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1817
Lost612
Penalties
Penalties7472
Yards610567
Yards / Game43.640.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1728:43
Third Downs
Attempts191201
Conversions6870
Conversion %35.6%34.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1524
Conversions107
Conversion %66.7%29.2%
Red Zone
Trips5339
Scores (TD + FG)4733
Score %88.7%84.6%
Touchdowns2922
TD %54.7%56.4%
Field Goals
Attempts3220
Made2514
Pct78.1%70.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4228
Made4127
Pct97.6%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →