Fourth Down Data
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USF

South Florida

BullsRun-Heavy
American Conference1-0#78 (-0.24)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
30· DRating
13· FPer play
19· DConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
58· CRating
78· BPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
97· A+Red-zone D
27· D3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.068
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.214
Defensive EPA/play
-0.312
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.1%
Def Success Rate
48.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.098
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.47
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
13th
Opp-adjusted defense
90th
Offensive EPA/play
13th
Defensive EPA/play
79th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
27th
Defensive havoc
36th
Points per drive
40th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Michigan2026OA -0.027 / +0.056similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, TD drive rate3762Miami (OH)2019OA -0.132 / +0.025similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3733Georgia Tech2022OA -0.050 / +0.061similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3594Illinois2021OA -0.054 / +0.040similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3575Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA351

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Florida International19-9W-14.5L53U
2@ Army------
3vs Delaware State------
4@ Bowling Green------
5vs Temple------
6@ UTSA------
7vs Kent State------
9vs UAB------
10@ East Carolina------
11vs Memphis------
12@ Florida Atlantic------
13vs Tulane------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off30thRush Off13thRed Zone Off31th3rd Down Off27thPass Def64thRush Def88thRed Zone Def98th3rd Down Def71th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.21412th-0.31288th
Red Zone-0.16131th-1.23398th
Third Down-0.20327th-0.28471th
No Garbage Time-0.21413th-0.31280th
First Half-0.24313th-0.22570th
Second Half-0.18721th-0.38491th
Early Downs-0.09731th-0.42191th
Passing Downs-0.15830th-0.19264th
Standard Downs-0.25213th-0.38888th
Goal to Go-0.52710th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 32.1%Rush 67.9%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
15.8%
TO Margin
+3.0
Explosive/G
11.0
Yards/Game
208.0
Pts/Drive
2.11
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
22.2%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth FloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points199
Points / Game19.09.0
First Downs
Total1419
Rushing74
Passing714
Penalty01
Rushing
Attempts3825
Yards10880
Yards / Carry2.83.2
Yards / Game108.080.0
Touchdowns10
Passing
Attempts1850
Completions1131
Completion %61.1%62.0%
Yards100301
Yards / Attempt5.66.0
Touchdowns01
Interceptions02
Passer Rating107.78111.17
Total Offense
Plays5675
Yards208381
Yards / Play3.75.1
Yards / Game208.0381.0
Punt Returns
Returns02
Yards013
Average—6.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns01
Yards03
Average—3.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts42
Yards18979
Average47.339.5
Interception Returns
Returns20
Yards250
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles02
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties48
Yards3050
Yards / Game30.050.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0929:51
Third Downs
Attempts1317
Conversions55
Conversion %38.5%29.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts07
Conversions03
Conversion %—42.9%
Red Zone
Trips42
Scores (TD + FG)42
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns11
TD %25.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts41
Made41
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts10
Made10
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →