Fourth Down Data
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DUKE

Duke

Blue DevilsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-5#23 (+5.90)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

83· BOverall
Offense
70· BRating
48· CPer play
37· DConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
78· BRating
73· BPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
73· BRed-zone O
96· ARed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.031
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.009
Defensive EPA/play
-0.048
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.057
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.025
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.32

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.41
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#23
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#48
model 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#68
model 45 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Duke ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
67th
Offensive EPA/play
49th
Defensive EPA/play
73th
Offensive success rate
33th
Explosiveness
39th
Defensive havoc
70th
Points per drive
61th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2024OA -0.004 / +0.040similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3792Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3733Texas A&M2019OA -0.008 / +0.106similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, rushing offense3654Penn State2018OA +0.000 / +0.080similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3575Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: pass defense, passing offense, run defense356

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Clemson28-7W+13.0W55.5U
2vs Lafayette42-7W-40.5L47.5O
3vs Northwestern38-14W-18.5W48.5O
4@ UConn41-7W-21.5W45O
5vs Notre Dame14-21L+5.5L52.5U
7vs NC State24-3W-3.5W46.5U
8@ Florida State20-38L+14.0L49O
9@ Louisville0-23L-12.5L44O
10vs Wake Forest24-21W----
11@ North Carolina45-47L+13.5W50.5O
12@ Virginia27-30L-4.0L47O
13vs Pittsburgh30-19W-6.0W42.5O
17vs Troy17-10W+6.5W44.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off69thRush Off26thRed Zone Off74th3rd Down Off29thPass Def81thRush Def77thRed Zone Def97th3rd Down Def64th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00446th-0.06784th
Red Zone+0.10574th-0.27597th
Third Down+0.08829th+0.11764th
No Garbage Time+0.00850th-0.05176th
First Half-0.02637th-0.10589th
Second Half+0.02056th-0.03158th
Early Downs-0.06536th-0.09681th
Passing Downs+0.11069th-0.03581th
Standard Downs-0.06926th-0.08477th
Goal to Go+0.32593th-0.45394th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.3%Rush 55.7%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
348.1
Pts/Drive
2.32
3rd Down%
36.8%
3&Out%
24.4%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Duke vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatDukeOpponents
Scoring
Points350247
Points / Game26.919.0
First Downs
Total244264
Rushing98111
Passing117138
Penalty2915
Rushing
Attempts448473
Yards2,1741,845
Yards / Carry4.93.9
Yards / Game167.2141.9
Touchdowns2615
Passing
Attempts357417
Completions200260
Completion %56.0%62.4%
Yards2,3512,740
Yards / Attempt6.66.6
Touchdowns1411
Interceptions810
Passer Rating119.80121.45
Total Offense
Plays805890
Yards4,5254,585
Yards / Play5.65.2
Yards / Game348.1352.7
Punt Returns
Returns1618
Yards14954
Average9.33.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1628
Yards338563
Average21.120.1
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5556
Yards2,5472,214
Average46.339.5
Interception Returns
Returns108
Yards5371
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1014
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties7382
Yards583745
Yards / Game44.857.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:6031:00
Third Downs
Attempts163183
Conversions6070
Conversion %36.8%38.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2028
Conversions1211
Conversion %60.0%39.3%
Red Zone
Trips4343
Scores (TD + FG)3732
Score %86.0%74.4%
Touchdowns2720
TD %62.8%46.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2326
Made1819
Pct78.3%73.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3824
Made3824
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →