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TA&M
Texas A&M
AggiesBalancedSoutheastern Conference8-5#30 (+10.00)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
78· BOverall
Offense
58· CRating
47· CPer play
70· BConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
74· BPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.106
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.001
Defensive EPA/play
-0.073
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.1%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.074
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.148
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.30
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.30
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#30
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#15
recruiting 15 spots higher
43 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Texas A&M ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense49th
Opp-adjusted defense87th
Offensive EPA/play48th
Defensive EPA/play75th
Offensive success rate80th
Explosiveness27th
Defensive havoc78th
Points per drive56th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Louisville2025OA +0.020 / +0.123similar: passing offense, havoc rate, pass defense3682Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense3683Duke2023OA +0.031 / +0.042similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, rushing offense3654UConn2024OA -0.004 / +0.040similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, turnover rate3595Georgia2019OA +0.072 / +0.181similar: pass defense, passing offense, offensive EPA354
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Texas State | 41-7 | W | -4.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Clemson | 10-24 | L | +16.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Lamar | 62-3 | W | -45.0 | W | 63 | O |
| 4 | vs Auburn | 20-28 | L | -4.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Arkansas | 31-27 | W | -23.0 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Alabama | 28-47 | L | +17.0 | L | 61 | O |
| 8 | @ Ole Miss | 24-17 | W | -6.0 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Mississippi State | 49-30 | W | -10.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 10 | vs UTSA | 45-14 | W | -38.5 | L | 55 | O |
| 12 | vs South Carolina | 30-6 | W | -10.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 13 | @ Georgia | 13-19 | L | +12.0 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 14 | @ LSU | 7-50 | L | +18.0 | L | 65 | U |
| 18 | vs Oklahoma State | 24-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.006 | 44th | -0.066 | 75th |
| Red Zone | -0.076 | 40th | -0.090 | 68th |
| Third Down | -0.079 | 25th | -0.192 | 90th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.014 | 40th | -0.060 | 72th |
| First Half | -0.068 | 25th | -0.041 | 60th |
| Second Half | +0.059 | 70th | -0.090 | 84th |
| Early Downs | +0.034 | 66th | +0.005 | 52th |
| Passing Downs | -0.137 | 16th | -0.180 | 90th |
| Standard Downs | +0.057 | 74th | +0.006 | 49th |
| Goal to Go | +0.005 | 52th | -0.135 | 64th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.3%Rush 48.7%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
394.5
Pts/Drive
2.30
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
24.2%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Texas A&M vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Texas A&M | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 384 | 293 |
| Points / Game | 29.5 | 22.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 287 | 250 |
| Rushing | 114 | 101 |
| Passing | 152 | 127 |
| Penalty | 21 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 429 | 417 |
| Yards | 2,068 | 1,699 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 159.1 | 130.7 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 452 | 425 |
| Completions | 273 | 232 |
| Completion % | 60.4% | 54.6% |
| Yards | 3,060 | 2,724 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 128.90 | 118.47 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 881 | 842 |
| Yards | 5,128 | 4,423 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 394.5 | 340.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 18 |
| Yards | 330 | 281 |
| Average | 12.7 | 15.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 28 |
| Yards | 379 | 656 |
| Average | 18.9 | 23.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 74 |
| Yards | 2,743 | 3,053 |
| Average | 46.5 | 41.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 10 |
| Yards | 87 | 94 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 10 |
| Lost | 10 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 87 | 81 |
| Yards | 720 | 633 |
| Yards / Game | 55.4 | 48.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:07 | 26:53 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 160 | 174 |
| Conversions | 64 | 55 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 31.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 14 |
| Conversions | 7 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 63.6% | 64.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 58 | 37 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 51 | 31 |
| Score % | 87.9% | 83.8% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 21 |
| TD % | 58.6% | 56.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 23 |
| Made | 18 | 16 |
| Pct | 78.3% | 69.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 46 | 34 |
| Made | 46 | 33 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.