Fourth Down Data
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WAKE

Wake Forest

Demon DeaconsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-5#18 (+14.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

86· BOverall
Offense
86· BRating
77· BPer play
41· CConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
54· CPer play
53· CConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
61· C3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.156
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.058
Defensive EPA/play
-0.030
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.088
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.071
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.34

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.00
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.61
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#18
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 57 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wake Forest ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
66th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
54th
Offensive success rate
52th
Explosiveness
38th
Defensive havoc
76th
Points per drive
67th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ole Miss2023OA +0.122 / +0.003similar: run defense, turnover rate, havoc rate4092Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3913Kansas State2022OA +0.082 / +0.085similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate3704Alabama2023OA +0.054 / +0.111similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate3655Arkansas2021OA +0.129 / +0.084similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate364

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Presbyterian51-7W-3.5L63O
2@ Boston College34-10W--46U
3vs Utah State46-10W-15.5W51O
4@ App State20-19W-5.0L48.5U
5vs Florida State19-26L+7.0P46.5U
6@ Clemson14-28L+21.0W50.5U
8@ Georgia Tech24-38L+3.5L49O
9vs Louisville42-32W+2.5W66.5O
10@ Notre Dame37-48L+15.5W55O
11@ Syracuse64-43W-2.5W64.5O
12vs NC State30-24W-3.0W62.5U
13vs Duke23-31L-10.5L58U
18@ Texas A&M55-52W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4-1
60.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off86thRush Off65thRed Zone Off65th3rd Down Off62thPass Def62thRush Def33thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def32th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06679th-0.01448th
Red Zone+0.06065th+0.05141th
Third Down+0.06462th+0.07732th
No Garbage Time+0.06480th-0.01951th
First Half+0.06979th-0.06459th
Second Half+0.06379th+0.04426th
Early Downs+0.01668th-0.03155th
Passing Downs+0.15786th-0.06162th
Standard Downs+0.02065th+0.01433th
Goal to Go+0.13773th-0.07956th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.2%Rush 55.8%
Havoc/Game
17.5
Havoc Rate
20.9%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
465.8
Pts/Drive
2.34
3rd Down%
39.7%
3&Out%
25.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Wake Forest vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWake ForestOpponents
Scoring
Points459368
Points / Game35.328.3
First Downs
Total296313
Rushing125130
Passing154166
Penalty1717
Rushing
Attempts537547
Yards2,4562,415
Yards / Carry4.64.4
Yards / Game188.9185.8
Touchdowns2224
Passing
Attempts426522
Completions268296
Completion %62.9%56.7%
Yards3,5993,530
Yards / Attempt8.46.8
Touchdowns3320
Interceptions714
Passer Rating156.15120.79
Total Offense
Plays9631,069
Yards6,0555,945
Yards / Play6.35.6
Yards / Game465.8457.3
Punt Returns
Returns3128
Yards323269
Average10.49.6
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns4449
Yards9331,030
Average21.221.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7172
Yards3,0452,958
Average42.941.1
Interception Returns
Returns147
Yards18752
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1623
Lost67
Penalties
Penalties6962
Yards544567
Yards / Game41.843.6
Time of Possession
Per Game27:0332:57
Third Downs
Attempts194226
Conversions7790
Conversion %39.7%39.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2033
Conversions1217
Conversion %60.0%51.5%
Red Zone
Trips5653
Scores (TD + FG)5345
Score %94.6%84.9%
Touchdowns3531
TD %62.5%58.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2524
Made2118
Pct84.0%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5642
Made5240
Pct92.9%95.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →