Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
MISS

Ole Miss

RebelsBalanced
Southeastern Conference11-2#14 (+7.11)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

89· BOverall
Offense
86· BRating
90· A-Per play
65· CConsistency
88· BBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
40· CPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
77· BRed-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.122
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.145
Defensive EPA/play
+0.032
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
47.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.112
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.038
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.94
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.74
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#9
AP 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#19
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#20
model 6 spots higher
24 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
93th
Opp-adjusted defense
54th
Offensive EPA/play
91th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
71th
Explosiveness
89th
Defensive havoc
72th
Points per drive
88th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wake Forest2017OA +0.156 / +0.050similar: run defense, turnover rate, havoc rate4112Texas2019OA +0.093 / +0.011similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3953TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3784Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3755Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, rushing offense366

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Mercer73-7W-48.5W85.5U
2@ Tulane37-20W-7.5W65U
3vs Georgia Tech48-23W-18.0W63O
4@ Alabama10-24L+6.5L55.25U
5vs LSU55-49W+2.5W67.5O
6vs Arkansas27-20W-11.5L63.5U
8@ Auburn28-21W-6.5W56.5U
9vs Vanderbilt33-7W-24.5W63.5U
10vs Texas A&M38-35W-3.0P53.5O
11@ Georgia17-52L+10.8L59O
12vs UL Monroe35-3W-10.0P55.5U
13@ Mississippi State17-7W----
18@ Penn State38-25W+4.0W48.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4-2
63.6%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
PLLPW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off94thRed Zone Off78th3rd Down Off87thPass Def87thRush Def14thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def33th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.14895th+0.03639th
Red Zone+0.12178th+0.05230th
Third Down+0.37487th+0.23633th
No Garbage Time+0.14290th+0.03340th
First Half+0.10476th+0.04736th
Second Half+0.19999th+0.02539th
Early Downs+0.04480th+0.03720th
Passing Downs+0.21184th-0.05787th
Standard Downs+0.11794th+0.08514th
Goal to Go+0.03051th-0.19174th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.4%Rush 57.6%
Havoc/Game
14.6
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
17.4
Yards/Game
461.9
Pts/Drive
2.83
3rd Down%
37.1%
3&Out%
21.0%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOle MissOpponents
Scoring
Points456293
Points / Game35.122.5
First Downs
Total305265
Rushing133108
Passing154135
Penalty1822
Rushing
Attempts535496
Yards2,2921,986
Yards / Carry4.34.0
Yards / Game176.3152.8
Touchdowns2919
Passing
Attempts394414
Completions256252
Completion %65.0%60.9%
Yards3,7132,983
Yards / Attempt9.47.2
Touchdowns2617
Interceptions613
Passer Rating162.87128.66
Total Offense
Plays929910
Yards6,0054,969
Yards / Play6.55.5
Yards / Game461.9382.2
Punt Returns
Returns1415
Yards117149
Average8.49.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2012
Yards310171
Average15.514.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4959
Yards2,0382,533
Average41.642.9
Interception Returns
Returns136
Yards145102
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1116
Lost15
Penalties
Penalties9473
Yards768621
Yards / Game59.147.8
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4432:16
Third Downs
Attempts175187
Conversions6573
Conversion %37.1%39.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3629
Conversions2512
Conversion %69.4%41.4%
Red Zone
Trips5941
Scores (TD + FG)5235
Score %88.1%85.4%
Touchdowns3926
TD %66.1%63.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2417
Made1911
Pct79.2%64.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5134
Made5134
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts63
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →