Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
OKST

Oklahoma State

CowboysBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#40 (+3.68)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

70· BOverall
Offense
87· BRating
87· BPer play
86· BConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
32· DRating
8· FPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
93· A3rd down O
40· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.102
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.090
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.124
Defensive EPA/play
+0.137
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.6%
Def Success Rate
47.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.013
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.060
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.27
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.87
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#40
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#41
model 1 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oklahoma State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
88th
Opp-adjusted defense
18th
Offensive EPA/play
88th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
85th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
55th
Points per drive
86th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2021OA +0.091 / -0.074similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive EPA4312Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, pass defense3743Baylor2018OA +0.089 / -0.076similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3664UCLA2022OA +0.171 / -0.041similar: passing offense, pass defense, offensive EPA3605Arkansas2022OA +0.169 / -0.023similar: passing offense, pass defense, defensive success rate360

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Missouri State58-17W+9.5W72.5U
2vs South Alabama55-13W-30.5W64O
3vs Boise State44-21W+2.0W65.5U
4vs Texas Tech17-41L-14.5L76U
5@ Kansas48-28W-17.0W55.5O
6vs Iowa State42-48L-10.0L55O
7@ Kansas State12-31L-8.0L62U
9vs Texas38-35W+2.5W60.5O
10@ Baylor31-35L-6.0L68U
11@ Oklahoma47-48L+21.0W80O
12vs West Virginia45-41W+6.0W74O
13@ TCU24-31L-6.0L52.5O
18vs Missouri38-33W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS5-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off81thRed Zone Off85th3rd Down Off94thPass Def15thRush Def10thRed Zone Def79th3rd Down Def41th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12488th+0.1249th
Red Zone+0.15685th-0.14879th
Third Down+0.35394th+0.06041th
No Garbage Time+0.12087th+0.1398th
First Half+0.11287th+0.12913th
Second Half+0.13591th+0.11914th
Early Downs+0.05673th+0.1385th
Passing Downs+0.21392th+0.14115th
Standard Downs+0.07981th+0.11410th
Goal to Go+0.07552th+0.03658th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.8%Rush 51.2%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
20.0
Yards/Game
500.2
Pts/Drive
2.80
3rd Down%
44.8%
3&Out%
19.0%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Oklahoma State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOklahoma StateOpponents
Scoring
Points499422
Points / Game38.432.5
First Downs
Total339301
Rushing132108
Passing184156
Penalty2337
Rushing
Attempts518522
Yards2,4742,410
Yards / Carry4.84.6
Yards / Game190.3185.4
Touchdowns3026
Passing
Attempts493452
Completions293279
Completion %59.4%61.7%
Yards4,0283,472
Yards / Attempt8.27.7
Touchdowns3327
Interceptions135
Passer Rating144.88143.75
Total Offense
Plays1,011974
Yards6,5025,882
Yards / Play6.46.0
Yards / Game500.2452.5
Punt Returns
Returns1920
Yards123141
Average6.57.0
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2926
Yards568494
Average19.619.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5571
Yards2,4062,870
Average43.740.4
Interception Returns
Returns513
Yards3970
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1815
Lost98
Penalties
Penalties8981
Yards917682
Yards / Game70.552.5
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2732:30
Third Downs
Attempts194189
Conversions8771
Conversion %44.8%37.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2419
Conversions1510
Conversion %62.5%52.6%
Red Zone
Trips6753
Scores (TD + FG)6039
Score %89.6%73.6%
Touchdowns4529
TD %67.2%54.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2220
Made1612
Pct72.7%60.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6354
Made6152
Pct96.8%96.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →