Fourth Down Data
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TCU

TCU

Horned FrogsBalanced
Big 12 Conference9-4#27 (+5.15)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

80· BOverall
Offense
86· BRating
84· BPer play
88· BConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
35· DPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.038
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.013
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.106
Defensive EPA/play
+0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.0%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.082
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.047
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.52
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#27
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#23
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#26
recruiting 1 spots higher
19 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where TCU ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
84th
Opp-adjusted defense
32th
Offensive EPA/play
85th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
78th
Explosiveness
45th
Defensive havoc
41th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2017OA +0.130 / +0.011similar: passing offense, rushing offense, takeaway rate3382UCLA2017OA +0.065 / -0.053similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, turnover rate3363Oregon2020OA +0.022 / -0.013similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive EPA3364USC2019OA +0.130 / -0.008similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3345Iowa State2019OA +0.102 / +0.045similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, pass defense330

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Stanford34-27W----
2vs LIU45-0W-45.5L57U
3vs UCF34-35L+2.0W62.5O
4@ SMU42-66L-3.0L58.5O
5@ Kansas38-27W-16.5L50.5U
6vs Houston19-30L----
8@ Utah13-7W+4.5W49U
9vs Texas Tech35-34W-6.5L67O
10@ Baylor34-37L+3.0P64.5O
11vs Oklahoma State38-13W-11.5W66.5U
13vs Arizona49-28W-11.5W59.5O
14@ Cincinnati20-13W-3.5W58.5U
18vs Louisiana34-3W-12.5W58U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
PWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off27thRush Off92thRed Zone Off95th3rd Down Off40thPass Def82thRush Def11thRed Zone Def13th3rd Down Def12th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07177th+0.01241th
Red Zone+0.30395th+0.18713th
Third Down+0.06640th+0.29912th
No Garbage Time+0.10384th+0.02932th
First Half+0.06872th-0.05663th
Second Half+0.07573th+0.07322th
Early Downs+0.05683th-0.00237th
Passing Downs-0.05427th-0.12282th
Standard Downs+0.13492th+0.09111th
Goal to Go-0.00346th+0.2827th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.0%Rush 45.0%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
426.8
Pts/Drive
2.88
3rd Down%
43.4%
3&Out%
16.8%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — TCU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTCUOpponents
Scoring
Points435320
Points / Game33.524.6
First Downs
Total293263
Rushing100131
Passing175112
Penalty1820
Rushing
Attempts400496
Yards1,4812,086
Yards / Carry3.74.2
Yards / Game113.9160.5
Touchdowns2621
Passing
Attempts488403
Completions326232
Completion %66.8%57.6%
Yards4,0682,407
Yards / Attempt8.36.0
Touchdowns2914
Interceptions1110
Passer Rating151.93114.24
Total Offense
Plays888899
Yards5,5494,493
Yards / Play6.25.0
Yards / Game426.8345.6
Punt Returns
Returns266
Yards28680
Average11.013.3
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns1829
Yards338484
Average18.816.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4261
Yards1,7802,463
Average42.440.4
Interception Returns
Returns1011
Yards49159
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1816
Lost116
Penalties
Penalties7369
Yards691601
Yards / Game53.246.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3331:27
Third Downs
Attempts166199
Conversions7287
Conversion %43.4%43.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2325
Conversions1813
Conversion %78.3%52.0%
Red Zone
Trips5741
Scores (TD + FG)5236
Score %91.2%87.8%
Touchdowns4226
TD %73.7%63.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2221
Made1516
Pct68.2%76.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5535
Made5432
Pct98.2%91.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →