Fourth Down Data
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ORE

Oregon

DucksBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-3#43 (+2.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

67· COverall
Offense
73· BRating
80· BPer play
85· BConsistency
90· A-Big plays
Defense
56· CRating
36· DPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
17· DRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.013
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.114
Defensive EPA/play
+0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.9%
Def Success Rate
50.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.054
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.158
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.64

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.53
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#43
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#21
market 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Oregon ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
80th
Defensive EPA/play
37th
Offensive success rate
88th
Explosiveness
91th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
79th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Hawai'i2019OA +0.004 / -0.105similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3632North Texas2017OA -0.005 / -0.142similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA3513Louisville2020OA +0.021 / -0.013similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3444Charlotte2019OA +0.119 / -0.146similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3415TCU2024OA +0.038 / -0.013similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive EPA336

2020 Schedule & Results

7 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10vs Stanford35-14W-10.0W51U
11@ Washington State43-29W-10.0W57.5O
12vs UCLA38-35W-13.5L64O
13@ Oregon State38-41L----
14@ California17-21L-10.0L58.5U
16@ USC31-24W----
18@ Iowa State17-34L+4.3L57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-4
42.9%
O/U Record
3-4
42.9%
Straight Up
4-3
57.1%
Home ATS1-1
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off82thRush Off80thRed Zone Off85th3rd Down Off78thPass Def74thRush Def13thRed Zone Def17th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11485th+0.06034th
Red Zone+0.21585th+0.16117th
Third Down+0.25278th+0.00266th
No Garbage Time+0.11685th+0.04841th
First Half+0.11478th+0.08031th
Second Half+0.11481th+0.03946th
Early Downs+0.05373th+0.07220th
Passing Downs+0.19582th-0.05774th
Standard Downs+0.08180th+0.11313th
Goal to Go+0.28480th+0.22520th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.6%Rush 55.4%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
15.5%
TO Margin
-1.3
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
412.9
Pts/Drive
2.64
3rd Down%
43.2%
3&Out%
17.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 7 games — Oregon vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregonOpponents
Scoring
Points219198
Points / Game31.328.3
First Downs
Total151156
Rushing6458
Passing7684
Penalty1114
Rushing
Attempts237284
Yards1,1671,187
Yards / Carry4.94.2
Yards / Game166.7169.6
Touchdowns1316
Passing
Attempts191247
Completions121151
Completion %63.4%61.1%
Yards1,7231,654
Yards / Attempt9.06.7
Touchdowns158
Interceptions65
Passer Rating158.76124.02
Total Offense
Plays428531
Yards2,8902,841
Yards / Play6.85.4
Yards / Game412.9405.9
Punt Returns
Returns69
Yards4267
Average7.07.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2224
Yards423512
Average19.221.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2525
Yards1,0911,119
Average43.644.8
Interception Returns
Returns56
Yards9146
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles135
Lost102
Penalties
Penalties4146
Yards356413
Yards / Game50.959.0
Time of Possession
Per Game26:1133:49
Third Downs
Attempts74116
Conversions3248
Conversion %43.2%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts623
Conversions315
Conversion %50.0%65.2%
Red Zone
Trips3031
Scores (TD + FG)2626
Score %86.7%83.9%
Touchdowns2320
TD %76.7%64.5%
Field Goals
Attempts813
Made58
Pct62.5%61.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2822
Made2822
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →