Fourth Down Data
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ISU

Iowa State

CyclonesBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#24 (+12.47)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

82· BOverall
Offense
86· BRating
63· CPer play
77· BConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
77· BRating
60· CPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.102
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.039
Defensive EPA/play
-0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.9%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.063
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.175
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.49

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.43
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.30
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#24
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#46
model 22 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
86th
Opp-adjusted defense
70th
Offensive EPA/play
63th
Defensive EPA/play
60th
Offensive success rate
79th
Explosiveness
66th
Defensive havoc
71th
Points per drive
70th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2017OA +0.082 / +0.202similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3582Notre Dame2022OA +0.064 / +0.054similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3373TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive success rate3344Boise State2020OA +0.011 / +0.002similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3335Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate332

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Iowa29-26W+4.0L55U
3vs Iowa17-18L+1.5W42.5U
4vs UL Monroe72-20W-17.0W51.5O
5@ Baylor21-23L-2.5L55.5U
6vs TCU49-24W-3.0W45O
7@ West Virginia38-14W-9.0W55U
8@ Texas Tech34-24W-10.0P58P
9vs Oklahoma State27-34L-11.5L64.5U
11@ Oklahoma41-42L+15.5W71O
12vs Texas23-21W-6.5L65U
13vs Kansas41-31W-26.0L58.5O
14@ Kansas State17-27L-4.5L45.5U
18vs Notre Dame9-33L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
4-7-1
36.4%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off73thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off18thPass Def57thRush Def48thRed Zone Def17th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04261th-0.01259th
Red Zone+0.21690th+0.12717th
Third Down-0.14418th-0.01861th
No Garbage Time+0.04665th-0.00955th
First Half+0.00347th-0.02657th
Second Half+0.08277th+0.00355th
Early Downs+0.13796th+0.02640th
Passing Downs+0.01550th-0.04257th
Standard Downs+0.05573th+0.00648th
Goal to Go+0.27987th+0.17519th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.0%Rush 46.0%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
444.3
Pts/Drive
2.49
3rd Down%
38.1%
3&Out%
14.6%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowa StateOpponents
Scoring
Points418337
Points / Game32.225.9
First Downs
Total298246
Rushing87105
Passing188130
Penalty2311
Rushing
Attempts412455
Yards1,7291,814
Yards / Carry4.24.0
Yards / Game133.0139.5
Touchdowns2213
Passing
Attempts484441
Completions315279
Completion %65.1%63.3%
Yards4,0472,987
Yards / Attempt8.46.8
Touchdowns2922
Interceptions96
Passer Rating151.37133.90
Total Offense
Plays896896
Yards5,7764,801
Yards / Play6.45.4
Yards / Game444.3369.3
Punt Returns
Returns1016
Yards9699
Average9.66.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2457
Yards4771,127
Average19.919.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5470
Yards2,1942,923
Average40.641.8
Interception Returns
Returns69
Yards10280
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1112
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties6170
Yards496622
Yards / Game38.247.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2429:36
Third Downs
Attempts168203
Conversions6484
Conversion %38.1%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2115
Conversions98
Conversion %42.9%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips5337
Scores (TD + FG)5033
Score %94.3%89.2%
Touchdowns3721
TD %69.8%56.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2327
Made1722
Pct73.9%81.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5136
Made4935
Pct96.1%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →