Fourth Down Data
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Boise State

BroncosBalanced
Pac-12 Conference5-2#14 (+8.48)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

89· BOverall
Offense
77· BRating
64· CPer play
61· CConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
56· CPer play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.053
Defensive EPA/play
+0.006
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
42.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.047
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.096
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.57

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+5.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+2.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+2.53
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 12 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#14
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Boise State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
62th
Opp-adjusted defense
55th
Offensive EPA/play
65th
Defensive EPA/play
57th
Offensive success rate
44th
Explosiveness
32th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
74th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa State2019OA +0.102 / +0.045similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3332Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense3283Miami (OH)2018OA +0.006 / -0.018similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, run defense3124Central Michigan2021OA +0.019 / +0.003similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3045South Carolina2023OA -0.031 / +0.005similar: pass defense, run defense, turnover rate301

2020 Schedule & Results

7 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8vs Utah State42-13W-16.5W52.5O
9@ Air Force49-30W+3.0L60O
10vs BYU17-51L-14.0W61.5O
11vs Colorado State52-21W----
12@ Hawai'i40-32W-14.0L55.5O
15@ Wyoming17-9W-9.5L46.5U
16@ San José State20-34L-6.5L55.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-4
42.9%
O/U Record
5-2
71.4%
Straight Up
5-2
71.4%
Home ATS2-1
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off70thRed Zone Off99th3rd Down Off30thPass Def52thRush Def17thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def57th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02255th+0.06332th
Red Zone+0.34899th+0.02541th
Third Down-0.03730th+0.04957th
No Garbage Time+0.06066th-0.00358th
First Half+0.05362th-0.09984th
Second Half-0.01840th+0.1986th
Early Downs-0.01347th+0.06623th
Passing Downs-0.02936th+0.03952th
Standard Downs+0.05170th+0.07917th
Goal to Go+0.14466th+0.3619th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.2%Rush 50.8%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
349.0
Pts/Drive
2.57
3rd Down%
43.3%
3&Out%
22.1%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 7 games — Boise State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoise StateOpponents
Scoring
Points237190
Points / Game33.927.1
First Downs
Total128140
Rushing5059
Passing7265
Penalty616
Rushing
Attempts229285
Yards7501,146
Yards / Carry3.34.0
Yards / Game107.1163.7
Touchdowns1313
Passing
Attempts222212
Completions139112
Completion %62.6%52.8%
Yards1,6931,467
Yards / Attempt7.66.9
Touchdowns1210
Interceptions33
Passer Rating141.81123.69
Total Offense
Plays451497
Yards2,4432,613
Yards / Play5.45.3
Yards / Game349.0373.3
Punt Returns
Returns1713
Yards311102
Average18.37.8
Touchdowns30
Kickoff Returns
Returns2114
Yards541256
Average25.818.3
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts3742
Yards1,4081,547
Average38.136.8
Interception Returns
Returns33
Yards337
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles86
Lost40
Penalties
Penalties3439
Yards345294
Yards / Game49.342.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2230:29
Third Downs
Attempts97107
Conversions4229
Conversion %43.3%27.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts719
Conversions413
Conversion %57.1%68.4%
Red Zone
Trips2231
Scores (TD + FG)2027
Score %90.9%87.1%
Touchdowns1818
TD %81.8%58.1%
Field Goals
Attempts812
Made710
Pct87.5%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3117
Made3014
Pct96.8%82.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts06
Made04
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →