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M-OH
Miami (OH)
RedHawksBalancedMid-American Conference6-6#55 (+2.15)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
58· COverall
Offense
62· CRating
55· CPer play
26· DConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
55· CPer play
46· CConsistency
Situational
96· ARed-zone O
11· FRed-zone D
64· C3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.023
Defensive EPA/play
-0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.039
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.066
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.28
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.56
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#55
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 11 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Miami (OH) ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense48th
Opp-adjusted defense42th
Offensive EPA/play56th
Defensive EPA/play56th
Offensive success rate18th
Explosiveness88th
Defensive havoc53th
Points per drive59th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UAB2017OA -0.060 / -0.004similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate3312Kennesaw State2025OA +0.044 / -0.084similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3273Kansas State2019OA -0.010 / +0.045similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3274NC State2021OA +0.021 / +0.101similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3235Ole Miss2019OA +0.008 / +0.019similar: run defense, defensive success rate, havoc rate314
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Marshall | 28-35 | L | -1.0 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Cincinnati | 0-21 | L | -1.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 3 | @ Minnesota | 3-26 | L | +14.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Bowling Green | 38-23 | W | -6.5 | W | 55 | O |
| 5 | vs Western Michigan | 39-40 | L | +3.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Akron | 41-17 | W | +5.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Kent State | 31-6 | W | -11.5 | W | 59 | U |
| 8 | @ Army | 30-31 | L | +6.5 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Buffalo | 42-51 | L | +7.0 | L | 53 | O |
| 11 | vs Ohio | 30-28 | W | +4.5 | W | 59 | U |
| 12 | @ Northern Illinois | 13-7 | W | +6.5 | W | 48 | U |
| 13 | vs Ball State | 42-21 | W | -16.5 | W | 55 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.002 | 48th | -0.028 | 58th |
| Red Zone | +0.331 | 97th | +0.228 | 11th |
| Third Down | +0.116 | 65th | +0.035 | 47th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.029 | 61th | -0.019 | 57th |
| First Half | +0.071 | 71th | +0.015 | 39th |
| Second Half | -0.073 | 20th | -0.073 | 77th |
| Early Downs | -0.085 | 17th | -0.077 | 77th |
| Passing Downs | -0.025 | 39th | -0.044 | 62th |
| Standard Downs | +0.013 | 54th | -0.020 | 52th |
| Goal to Go | +0.367 | 89th | +0.144 | 38th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.0%Rush 54.0%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
18.5%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
372.0
Pts/Drive
2.28
3rd Down%
37.4%
3&Out%
22.1%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Miami (OH) vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 337 | 306 |
| Points / Game | 28.1 | 25.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 228 | 248 |
| Rushing | 86 | 110 |
| Passing | 123 | 113 |
| Penalty | 19 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 442 | 479 |
| Yards | 1,917 | 1,916 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 159.8 | 159.7 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 376 | 364 |
| Completions | 226 | 212 |
| Completion % | 60.1% | 58.2% |
| Yards | 2,547 | 2,502 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 129.27 | 130.62 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 818 | 843 |
| Yards | 4,464 | 4,418 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 372.0 | 368.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 16 |
| Yards | 32 | 181 |
| Average | 2.7 | 11.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 16 |
| Yards | 874 | 310 |
| Average | 25.7 | 19.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 67 | 70 |
| Yards | 2,752 | 2,768 |
| Average | 41.1 | 39.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 5 |
| Yards | 58 | 68 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 16 |
| Lost | 5 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 78 | 81 |
| Yards | 696 | 777 |
| Yards / Game | 58.0 | 64.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:23 | 29:37 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 179 | 173 |
| Conversions | 67 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 37.4% | 39.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 18 |
| Conversions | 17 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 60.7% | 66.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 43 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 35 |
| Score % | 97.7% | 81.4% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 33 |
| TD % | 79.1% | 76.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 9 |
| Made | 10 | 5 |
| Pct | 76.9% | 55.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 40 |
| Made | 41 | 37 |
| Pct | 97.6% | 92.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.