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NCSU
NC State
WolfpackBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference9-3#22 (+6.87)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
83· BOverall
Offense
53· CRating
54· CPer play
27· DConsistency
39· DBig plays
Defense
91· A-Rating
83· BPer play
97· A+Consistency
Situational
78· BRed-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
86· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.101
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.022
Defensive EPA/play
-0.097
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.9%
Def Success Rate
38.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.119
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.008
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.36
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.69
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.84
own return game
Return Defense
-0.36
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#20
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#34
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#29
model 7 spots higher
15 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense59th
Opp-adjusted defense89th
Offensive EPA/play55th
Defensive EPA/play84th
Offensive success rate29th
Explosiveness40th
Defensive havoc84th
Points per drive59th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Alabama2025OA +0.069 / +0.141similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, pass defense3772Penn State2026OA +0.030 / +0.032similar: run defense, pass defense, turnover rate3703Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3524West Virginia2020OA -0.023 / +0.046similar: rushing offense, pass defense, turnover rate3505Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA334
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs South Florida | 45-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Mississippi State | 10-24 | L | -1.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Furman | 45-7 | W | -27.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 4 | vs Clemson | 27-21 | W | +10.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Louisiana Tech | 34-27 | W | -19.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Boston College | 33-7 | W | -3.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 8 | @ Miami | 30-31 | L | -3.0 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Louisville | 28-13 | W | -6.8 | W | 57 | U |
| 10 | @ Florida State | 28-14 | W | -3.0 | W | 56 | U |
| 11 | @ Wake Forest | 42-45 | L | +2.0 | L | 66.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Syracuse | 41-17 | W | -11.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 13 | vs North Carolina | 34-30 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.016 | 52th | -0.097 | 87th |
| Red Zone | +0.117 | 79th | +0.168 | 14th |
| Third Down | +0.027 | 38th | -0.143 | 86th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.024 | 54th | -0.094 | 83th |
| First Half | -0.039 | 35th | -0.179 | 96th |
| Second Half | +0.077 | 83th | -0.019 | 53th |
| Early Downs | +0.028 | 65th | -0.022 | 53th |
| Passing Downs | -0.094 | 24th | -0.081 | 70th |
| Standard Downs | +0.076 | 74th | -0.108 | 86th |
| Goal to Go | +0.033 | 61th | +0.194 | 22th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 54.4%Rush 45.6%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
414.6
Pts/Drive
2.36
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
23.4%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | NC State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 397 | 236 |
| Points / Game | 33.1 | 19.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 257 | 210 |
| Rushing | 79 | 70 |
| Passing | 155 | 108 |
| Penalty | 23 | 32 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 372 | 391 |
| Yards | 1,514 | 1,479 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 126.2 | 123.3 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 9 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 443 | 413 |
| Completions | 288 | 217 |
| Completion % | 65.0% | 52.5% |
| Yards | 3,461 | 2,491 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 154.00 | 111.12 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 815 | 804 |
| Yards | 4,975 | 3,970 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 414.6 | 330.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 18 |
| Yards | 185 | 131 |
| Average | 9.7 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 15 |
| Yards | 644 | 400 |
| Average | 30.7 | 26.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 67 | 80 |
| Yards | 2,992 | 3,367 |
| Average | 44.7 | 42.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 6 |
| Yards | 35 | 74 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 9 |
| Lost | 5 | 1 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 89 | 83 |
| Yards | 774 | 686 |
| Yards / Game | 64.5 | 57.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:17 | 28:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 170 | 180 |
| Conversions | 68 | 53 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 29.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 20 |
| Conversions | 5 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 41.7% | 45.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 43 | 31 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 26 |
| Score % | 90.7% | 83.9% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 19 |
| TD % | 67.4% | 61.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 15 |
| Made | 13 | 11 |
| Pct | 68.4% | 73.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 48 | 29 |
| Made | 48 | 29 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 0 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.