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ALA
Alabama
Crimson TideBalancedSoutheastern Conference11-4#14 (+15.70)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
89· BOverall
Offense
84· BRating
56· CPer play
51· CConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
83· BPer play
85· BConsistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
76· B3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.069
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.141
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.013
Defensive EPA/play
-0.104
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
41.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.118
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.216
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.43
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#9
AP 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#29
model 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#2
recruiting 12 spots higher
82 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense76th
Opp-adjusted defense93th
Offensive EPA/play56th
Defensive EPA/play84th
Offensive success rate54th
Explosiveness56th
Defensive havoc79th
Points per drive64th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1NC State2021OA +0.021 / +0.101similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, pass defense3772Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, pass defense3743Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3504Minnesota2024OA +0.001 / +0.055similar: defensive success rate, run defense, havoc rate3445Houston2021OA +0.063 / +0.097similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate343
2025 Schedule & Results
15 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Florida State | 17-31 | L | +2.5 | L | 49 | U |
| 2 | vs UL Monroe | 73-0 | W | -34.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Wisconsin | 38-14 | W | -20.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Georgia | 24-21 | W | +2.5 | W | 53.75 | U |
| 6 | vs Vanderbilt | 30-14 | W | -7.5 | W | 54 | U |
| 7 | @ Missouri | 27-24 | W | -3.0 | P | 51.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Tennessee | 37-20 | W | -9.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 9 | @ South Carolina | 29-22 | W | -10.5 | L | 40.5 | O |
| 11 | vs LSU | 20-9 | W | -10.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Oklahoma | 21-23 | L | -2.5 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Eastern Illinois | 56-0 | W | -49.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 14 | @ Auburn | 27-20 | W | -6.0 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 15 | vs Georgia | 7-28 | L | +10.5 | L | 36.5 | U |
| 17 | @ Oklahoma | 34-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 19 | @ Indiana | 3-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-5-1
64.3%
O/U Record
7-8
46.7%
Straight Up
11-4
73.3%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS7-2
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.024 | 64th | -0.102 | 87th |
| Red Zone | +0.158 | 84th | -0.281 | 93th |
| Third Down | +0.229 | 76th | +0.042 | 55th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.009 | 55th | -0.108 | 85th |
| First Half | +0.059 | 70th | -0.168 | 93th |
| Second Half | -0.010 | 52th | -0.036 | 59th |
| Early Downs | -0.066 | 24th | -0.194 | 99th |
| Passing Downs | +0.188 | 88th | +0.002 | 42th |
| Standard Downs | -0.054 | 27th | -0.163 | 96th |
| Goal to Go | +0.142 | 70th | -0.248 | 80th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.9%Rush 47.1%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
367.7
Pts/Drive
2.43
3rd Down%
41.9%
3&Out%
23.6%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 15 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Alabama | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 443 | 288 |
| Points / Game | 29.5 | 19.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 305 | 238 |
| Rushing | 86 | 105 |
| Passing | 190 | 111 |
| Penalty | 29 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 466 | 509 |
| Yards | 1,562 | 1,903 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 104.1 | 126.9 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 523 | 396 |
| Completions | 343 | 246 |
| Completion % | 65.6% | 62.1% |
| Yards | 3,953 | 2,549 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 147.35 | 123.97 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 989 | 905 |
| Yards | 5,515 | 4,452 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 367.7 | 296.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 14 |
| Yards | 220 | 138 |
| Average | 8.5 | 9.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 22 |
| Yards | 341 | 380 |
| Average | 17.1 | 17.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 53 | 70 |
| Yards | 2,201 | 2,990 |
| Average | 41.5 | 42.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 5 |
| Yards | 222 | 136 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 20 |
| Lost | 8 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 67 | 85 |
| Yards | 596 | 787 |
| Yards / Game | 39.7 | 52.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:32 | 28:28 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 203 | 202 |
| Conversions | 85 | 75 |
| Conversion % | 41.9% | 37.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 23 |
| Conversions | 22 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 61.1% | 69.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 60 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 53 | 31 |
| Score % | 88.3% | 77.5% |
| Touchdowns | 43 | 21 |
| TD % | 71.7% | 52.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 19 |
| Made | 16 | 15 |
| Pct | 69.6% | 78.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 55 | 33 |
| Made | 55 | 33 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.