Fourth Down Data
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AUB

Auburn

TigersRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference10-4#7 (+23.25)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
85· BRating
62· CPer play
76· BConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
96· ARating
90· A-Per play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.082
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.202
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.014
Defensive EPA/play
-0.173
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
41.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.187
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.132
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.47

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#7
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#10
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#9
model 2 spots higher
47 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Auburn ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
98th
Offensive EPA/play
62th
Defensive EPA/play
91th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
16th
Defensive havoc
61th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ohio State2023OA +0.143 / +0.158similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, run defense3632Iowa State2019OA +0.102 / +0.045similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3583Michigan2018OA +0.092 / +0.163similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive EPA3584Georgia2025OA +0.094 / +0.113similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3515Penn State2026OA +0.030 / +0.032similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate345

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Georgia Southern41-7W-10.5L66U
2@ Clemson6-14L+6.0L54.5U
3vs Mercer24-10W-41.0L--
4@ Missouri51-14W-18.5W60O
5vs Mississippi State49-10W-7.5W51O
6vs Ole Miss44-23W-21.0P56O
7@ LSU23-27L-6.5L47O
8@ Arkansas52-20W-17.0W51O
10@ Texas A&M42-27W-14.5W51.5O
11vs Georgia40-17W+2.5W48O
12vs UL Monroe42-14W-38.0L68U
13vs Alabama26-14W+5.0W47.5U
14vs Georgia7-28L+2.0L48U
18vs UCF27-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off35thRush Off76thRed Zone Off71th3rd Down Off80thPass Def86thRush Def78thRed Zone Def20th3rd Down Def89th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01865th-0.13783th
Red Zone+0.08171th+0.13320th
Third Down+0.15780th-0.30989th
No Garbage Time+0.01359th-0.17792th
First Half+0.01362th-0.17286th
Second Half+0.02467th-0.10274th
Early Downs+0.00565th-0.09474th
Passing Downs-0.06135th-0.17986th
Standard Downs+0.05276th-0.11078th
Goal to Go+0.05060th+0.22717th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.3%Rush 62.7%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
451.6
Pts/Drive
2.47
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
16.5%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Auburn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAuburnOpponents
Scoring
Points474259
Points / Game33.918.5
First Downs
Total312233
Rushing161100
Passing126111
Penalty2522
Rushing
Attempts642529
Yards3,0561,918
Yards / Carry4.83.6
Yards / Game218.3137.0
Touchdowns3411
Passing
Attempts382428
Completions255232
Completion %66.8%54.2%
Yards3,2672,553
Yards / Attempt8.66.0
Touchdowns2116
Interceptions66
Passer Rating153.59113.84
Total Offense
Plays1,024957
Yards6,3234,471
Yards / Play6.24.7
Yards / Game451.6319.4
Punt Returns
Returns2114
Yards179160
Average8.511.4
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2725
Yards627680
Average23.227.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5790
Yards2,2503,755
Average39.541.7
Interception Returns
Returns66
Yards8252
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles2124
Lost1413
Penalties
Penalties6384
Yards537679
Yards / Game38.448.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2228:38
Third Downs
Attempts209222
Conversions9573
Conversion %45.5%32.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1530
Conversions714
Conversion %46.7%46.7%
Red Zone
Trips5936
Scores (TD + FG)5230
Score %88.1%83.3%
Touchdowns3820
TD %64.4%55.6%
Field Goals
Attempts3120
Made2314
Pct74.2%70.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5729
Made5729
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →