Fourth Down Data
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OSU

Ohio State

BuckeyesBalanced
Big Ten Conference11-2#6 (+11.36)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
87· BRating
86· BPer play
95· AConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
92· A-Per play
84· BConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.143
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.158
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.126
Defensive EPA/play
-0.131
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.1%
Def Success Rate
41.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.257
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#6
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#10
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#5
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#3
recruiting 3 spots higher
73 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
95th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
93th
Offensive success rate
87th
Explosiveness
78th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2017OA +0.082 / +0.202similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, run defense3632Penn State2026OA +0.030 / +0.032similar: run defense, passing offense, offensive EPA3583Alabama2022OA +0.176 / +0.135similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, passing offense3574Michigan2018OA +0.092 / +0.163similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense3565Michigan2021OA +0.126 / +0.077similar: run defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA354

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Indiana23-3W-30.0L59U
2vs Youngstown State35-7W----
3vs Western Kentucky63-10W-29.0W64O
4@ Notre Dame17-14W-3.0P55.5U
6vs Maryland37-17W-20.0P57.25U
7@ Purdue41-7W-19.5W49.5U
8vs Penn State20-12W-4.0W46.5U
9@ Wisconsin24-10W-14.5L43.5U
10@ Rutgers35-16W-18.5W42.5O
11vs Michigan State38-3W-31.5W47.5U
12vs Minnesota37-3W-27.5W49U
13@ Michigan24-30L+3.5L46O
18vs Missouri3-14L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4-2
60.0%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off44thRush Off95thRed Zone Off37th3rd Down Off64thPass Def97thRush Def90thRed Zone Def90th3rd Down Def99th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09883th-0.15295th
Red Zone-0.05437th-0.21390th
Third Down+0.26264th-0.17699th
No Garbage Time+0.12487th-0.12893th
First Half+0.07066th-0.16997th
Second Half+0.13393th-0.13691th
Early Downs+0.09593th-0.13990th
Passing Downs+0.04444th-0.18297th
Standard Downs+0.12395th-0.13690th
Goal to Go-0.2709th-0.20977th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.1%Rush 51.9%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
407.9
Pts/Drive
2.75
3rd Down%
43.4%
3&Out%
17.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhio StateOpponents
Scoring
Points397146
Points / Game30.511.2
First Downs
Total275203
Rushing9188
Passing16195
Penalty2320
Rushing
Attempts431452
Yards1,8051,553
Yards / Carry4.23.4
Yards / Game138.8119.5
Touchdowns206
Passing
Attempts400376
Completions255198
Completion %63.7%52.7%
Yards3,4981,897
Yards / Attempt8.75.0
Touchdowns269
Interceptions77
Passer Rating155.1699.21
Total Offense
Plays831828
Yards5,3033,450
Yards / Play6.44.2
Yards / Game407.9265.4
Punt Returns
Returns1711
Yards75136
Average4.412.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1314
Yards259251
Average19.917.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5075
Yards2,1743,167
Average43.542.2
Interception Returns
Returns77
Yards23053
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1011
Lost64
Penalties
Penalties7462
Yards579529
Yards / Game44.540.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2530:34
Third Downs
Attempts166189
Conversions7254
Conversion %43.4%28.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1832
Conversions1016
Conversion %55.6%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5028
Scores (TD + FG)4321
Score %86.0%75.0%
Touchdowns3213
TD %64.0%46.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2020
Made1614
Pct80.0%70.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5014
Made4914
Pct98.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →