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RICE
Rice
OwlsBalancedAmerican Conference6-7#83 (-2.31)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
39· DOverall
Offense
56· CRating
51· CPer play
35· DConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
28· DRating
39· DPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.058
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.015
Defensive EPA/play
+0.034
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
45.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.019
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.092
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#83
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#88
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 7 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Rice ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense43th
Opp-adjusted defense27th
Offensive EPA/play51th
Defensive EPA/play39th
Offensive success rate45th
Explosiveness50th
Defensive havoc43th
Points per drive62th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1West Virginia2017OA +0.130 / +0.011similar: turnover rate, run defense, defensive EPA3562Georgia Southern2024OA -0.003 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA3363Ole Miss2026OA +0.002 / -0.042similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate3234Western Kentucky2017OA -0.100 / -0.118similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3185Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate311
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Texas | 10-37 | L | +35.0 | W | 59 | U |
| 2 | vs Houston | 43-41 | W | +8.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Texas Southern | 59-7 | W | -35.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 4 | @ South Florida | 29-42 | L | -2.5 | L | 58 | O |
| 5 | vs East Carolina | 24-17 | W | -3.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 6 | vs UConn | 31-38 | L | -9.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Tulsa | 42-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs Tulane | 28-30 | L | +10.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 10 | vs SMU | 31-36 | L | +11.8 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 11 | @ UTSA | 14-34 | L | +14.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Charlotte | 28-7 | W | -2.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Florida Atlantic | 24-21 | W | -4.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 18 | vs Texas State | 21-45 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.024 | 57th | +0.025 | 44th |
| Red Zone | +0.284 | 96th | -0.115 | 72th |
| Third Down | +0.305 | 74th | +0.273 | 26th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.010 | 52th | +0.036 | 38th |
| First Half | -0.006 | 43th | +0.009 | 50th |
| Second Half | +0.056 | 71th | +0.043 | 36th |
| Early Downs | -0.029 | 50th | -0.018 | 41th |
| Passing Downs | +0.027 | 41th | +0.057 | 40th |
| Standard Downs | +0.023 | 64th | +0.006 | 41th |
| Goal to Go | +0.263 | 88th | -0.315 | 88th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.7%Rush 47.3%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
362.9
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
23.9%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Rice vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Rice | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 384 | 365 |
| Points / Game | 29.5 | 28.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 248 | 251 |
| Rushing | 83 | 96 |
| Passing | 140 | 129 |
| Penalty | 25 | 26 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 387 | 484 |
| Yards | 1,436 | 1,990 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 110.5 | 153.1 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 431 | 378 |
| Completions | 268 | 220 |
| Completion % | 62.2% | 58.2% |
| Yards | 3,282 | 2,751 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 16 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 140.93 | 131.53 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 818 | 862 |
| Yards | 4,718 | 4,741 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 362.9 | 364.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 16 |
| Yards | 197 | 166 |
| Average | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 18 |
| Yards | 548 | 295 |
| Average | 20.3 | 16.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 56 |
| Yards | 2,123 | 2,375 |
| Average | 39.3 | 42.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 16 |
| Yards | 98 | 169 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 11 |
| Lost | 10 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 74 | 81 |
| Yards | 628 | 771 |
| Yards / Game | 48.3 | 59.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:06 | 28:59 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 156 | 178 |
| Conversions | 60 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 38.5% | 37.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 27 |
| Conversions | 16 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 66.7% | 40.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 36 |
| Score % | 89.4% | 75.0% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 28 |
| TD % | 76.6% | 58.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 24 |
| Made | 8 | 19 |
| Pct | 66.7% | 79.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 48 | 39 |
| Made | 48 | 38 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 5 |
| Made | 3 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.