Fourth Down Data
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WKU

Western Kentucky

HilltoppersPass-Heavy
Conference USA6-7#116 (-15.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

13· FOverall
Offense
13· FRating
45· CPer play
71· BConsistency
25· DBig plays
Defense
16· DRating
44· CPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
17· DRed-zone D
91· A-3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.100
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.118
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.034
Defensive EPA/play
+0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.036
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.053
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.12

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#116
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 41 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
13th
Opp-adjusted defense
13th
Offensive EPA/play
45th
Defensive EPA/play
44th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
26th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
49th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Washington State2023OA -0.003 / +0.005similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA4692Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, passing offense3753Delaware2025OA -0.084 / -0.156similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3544Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3485North Texas2019OA -0.041 / -0.097similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate343

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Kentucky31-17W-4.5L54U
2@ Illinois7-20L-6.0L51U
3vs Louisiana Tech22-23L-4.0L62U
4vs Ball State33-21W-12.5L50O
6@ UTEP15-14W-16.5L52.5U
7vs Charlotte45-14W-18.0W48O
8@ Old Dominion35-31W-6.5L49.5O
9vs Florida Atlantic28-42L+6.5L67O
10@ Vanderbilt17-31L+12.5L54.5U
11@ Marshall23-30L+10.0W54.5U
12vs Middle Tennessee41-38W+1.5W56O
13@ Florida International17-41L-3.0L56.5O
16@ Georgia State17-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS1-6
Favorite ATS1-7
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off56thRush Off42thRed Zone Off35th3rd Down Off92thPass Def19thRush Def68thRed Zone Def17th3rd Down Def18th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04041th-0.00447th
Red Zone-0.06835th+0.15617th
Third Down+0.27692th+0.16218th
No Garbage Time-0.03444th+0.00246th
First Half+0.01463th-0.00844th
Second Half-0.09427th-0.00144th
Early Downs-0.08827th-0.11281th
Passing Downs-0.00656th+0.13019th
Standard Downs-0.05642th-0.07968th
Goal to Go+0.11171th+0.22915th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 59.6%Rush 40.4%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
15.6%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
395.8
Pts/Drive
2.12
3rd Down%
44.0%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern KentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points331349
Points / Game25.526.8
First Downs
Total294250
Rushing77111
Passing193126
Penalty2413
Rushing
Attempts391500
Yards7912,214
Yards / Carry2.04.4
Yards / Game60.8170.3
Touchdowns1527
Passing
Attempts577388
Completions381227
Completion %66.0%58.5%
Yards4,3552,689
Yards / Attempt7.56.9
Touchdowns2711
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating141.41120.92
Total Offense
Plays968888
Yards5,1464,903
Yards / Play5.35.5
Yards / Game395.8377.2
Punt Returns
Returns1412
Yards3972
Average2.86.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4736
Yards901722
Average19.220.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5767
Yards2,2902,723
Average40.240.6
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards5779
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2417
Lost135
Penalties
Penalties7476
Yards633767
Yards / Game48.759.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2330:37
Third Downs
Attempts193191
Conversions8583
Conversion %44.0%43.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2712
Conversions116
Conversion %40.7%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5044
Scores (TD + FG)3640
Score %72.0%90.9%
Touchdowns3026
TD %60.0%59.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1624
Made1018
Pct62.5%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4041
Made3941
Pct97.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →