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WSU
Washington State
CougarsPass-HeavyPac-12 Conference5-7#53 (+1.86)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
61· COverall
Offense
62· CRating
42· CPer play
74· BConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
63· CRating
41· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.013
Defensive EPA/play
+0.030
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.7%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.044
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.017
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.27
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#53
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#51
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#68
model 15 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Washington State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense48th
Opp-adjusted defense55th
Offensive EPA/play42th
Defensive EPA/play41th
Offensive success rate75th
Explosiveness67th
Defensive havoc19th
Points per drive58th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Western Kentucky2017OA -0.100 / -0.118similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, defensive success rate4672Colorado State2019OA -0.042 / -0.044similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3313California2025OA -0.011 / -0.044similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3304Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3295BYU2019OA +0.026 / -0.004similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate323
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Colorado State | 50-24 | W | -11.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Wisconsin | 31-22 | W | +5.5 | W | 58 | U |
| 3 | vs Northern Colorado | 64-21 | W | -45.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Oregon State | 38-35 | W | +3.0 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 6 | @ UCLA | 17-25 | L | +3.5 | L | 59.25 | U |
| 7 | vs Arizona | 6-44 | L | -8.0 | L | 59 | U |
| 8 | @ Oregon | 24-38 | L | +20.0 | W | 62 | P |
| 9 | @ Arizona State | 27-38 | L | -6.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Stanford | 7-10 | L | -13.0 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 11 | @ California | 39-42 | L | -4.5 | W | 64 | O |
| 12 | vs Colorado | 56-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | @ Washington | 21-24 | L | +16.5 | W | 68 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.005 | 45th | +0.050 | 31th |
| Red Zone | -0.040 | 40th | +0.179 | 13th |
| Third Down | +0.396 | 90th | +0.177 | 49th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.010 | 41th | +0.023 | 44th |
| First Half | +0.068 | 65th | -0.001 | 55th |
| Second Half | -0.084 | 22th | +0.099 | 17th |
| Early Downs | -0.019 | 56th | +0.024 | 26th |
| Passing Downs | +0.070 | 56th | -0.007 | 67th |
| Standard Downs | -0.042 | 37th | +0.079 | 18th |
| Goal to Go | -0.011 | 44th | +0.209 | 23th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 59.9%Rush 40.1%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
421.7
Pts/Drive
2.27
3rd Down%
42.5%
3&Out%
23.1%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Washington State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Washington State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 380 | 337 |
| Points / Game | 31.7 | 28.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 270 | 241 |
| Rushing | 78 | 96 |
| Passing | 169 | 122 |
| Penalty | 23 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 342 | 425 |
| Yards | 1,018 | 1,810 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 84.8 | 150.8 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 26 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 510 | 399 |
| Completions | 340 | 241 |
| Completion % | 66.7% | 60.4% |
| Yards | 4,042 | 2,863 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 147.18 | 128.24 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 852 | 824 |
| Yards | 5,060 | 4,673 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 421.7 | 389.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 8 |
| Yards | 70 | 65 |
| Average | 7.8 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 16 |
| Yards | 440 | 421 |
| Average | 22.0 | 26.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 46 | 58 |
| Yards | 2,041 | 2,470 |
| Average | 44.4 | 42.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 9 |
| Yards | 162 | 31 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 20 | 15 |
| Lost | 12 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 77 |
| Yards | 596 | 649 |
| Yards / Game | 49.7 | 54.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:40 | 30:16 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 160 | 175 |
| Conversions | 68 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 42.5% | 41.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 19 |
| Conversions | 12 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 46.2% | 63.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 50 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 38 |
| Score % | 76.0% | 90.5% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 28 |
| TD % | 64.0% | 66.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 18 |
| Made | 10 | 13 |
| Pct | 66.7% | 72.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 44 | 41 |
| Made | 44 | 40 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 2 |
| Made | 3 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.