Fourth Down Data
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CSU

Colorado State

RamsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference4-8#98 (-7.89)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

27· DOverall
Offense
33· DRating
35· DPer play
44· CConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
40· CPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
27· D3rd down O
79· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.037
Defensive EPA/play
+0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.2%
Def Success Rate
47.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.068
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.067
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.07

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.92
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.98
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#98
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 23 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Colorado State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
32th
Offensive EPA/play
35th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
39th
Explosiveness
60th
Defensive havoc
43th
Points per drive
44th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2019OA -0.041 / -0.097similar: run defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate3642Virginia2023OA -0.060 / -0.007similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3403Washington State2023OA -0.003 / +0.005similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3314Baylor2017OA -0.048 / -0.025similar: defensive success rate, run defense, turnover rate3305West Virginia2017OA +0.130 / +0.011similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate324

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Colorado31-52L+12.0L55O
2vs Western Illinois38-13W-12.0W57.5U
3@ Arkansas34-55L+9.0L63.5O
4vs Toledo35-41L+6.0P67.5O
5@ Utah State24-34L+24.0W69U
6vs San Diego State10-24L+7.5L49U
7@ New Mexico35-21W-4.0W66.5U
9@ Fresno State41-31W+13.5W57O
10vs UNLV37-17W-7.5W64U
12vs Air Force21-38L+10.5L62.5U
13@ Wyoming7-17L+5.0L50.5U
14vs Boise State24-31L+14.0W57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-0
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off10thRed Zone Off29th3rd Down Off28thPass Def53thRush Def21thRed Zone Def15th3rd Down Def80th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04828th+0.04133th
Red Zone-0.13129th+0.13115th
Third Down-0.06128th-0.11080th
No Garbage Time-0.03335th+0.03936th
First Half+0.06167th+0.02740th
Second Half-0.1668th+0.05326th
Early Downs-0.07522th+0.03932th
Passing Downs+0.10372th-0.01653th
Standard Downs-0.13010th+0.06921th
Goal to Go-0.38710th-0.06856th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.0%Rush 47.0%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
18.0%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
16.4
Yards/Game
437.4
Pts/Drive
2.07
3rd Down%
39.6%
3&Out%
18.5%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Colorado State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColorado StateOpponents
Scoring
Points337374
Points / Game28.131.2
First Downs
Total258238
Rushing79119
Passing15791
Penalty2228
Rushing
Attempts395495
Yards1,5862,350
Yards / Carry4.04.7
Yards / Game132.2195.8
Touchdowns1823
Passing
Attempts446316
Completions280183
Completion %62.8%57.9%
Yards3,6632,179
Yards / Attempt8.26.9
Touchdowns2119
Interceptions116
Passer Rating142.37131.88
Total Offense
Plays841811
Yards5,2494,529
Yards / Play6.25.6
Yards / Game437.4377.4
Punt Returns
Returns2117
Yards14294
Average6.85.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2418
Yards591498
Average24.627.7
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts4966
Yards2,2742,882
Average46.443.7
Interception Returns
Returns611
Yards105119
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2111
Lost137
Penalties
Penalties8076
Yards785650
Yards / Game65.454.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1429:46
Third Downs
Attempts169168
Conversions6760
Conversion %39.6%35.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2122
Conversions1115
Conversion %52.4%68.2%
Red Zone
Trips4643
Scores (TD + FG)3538
Score %76.1%88.4%
Touchdowns2628
TD %56.5%65.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2415
Made1415
Pct58.3%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4146
Made4145
Pct100.0%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →