Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
SMU

SMU

MustangsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-4#37 (+4.77)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

72· BOverall
Offense
86· BRating
84· BPer play
69· CConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
42· CRating
53· CPer play
80· BConsistency
Situational
41· CRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.036
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.086
Defensive EPA/play
-0.028
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.8%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.114
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.111
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.93

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.98
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.89
own return game
Return Defense
-0.31
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#37
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#26
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
model 26 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
54th
Offensive EPA/play
85th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
74th
Explosiveness
68th
Defensive havoc
38th
Points per drive
92th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida State2025OA +0.075 / -0.008similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense3522TCU2025OA +0.044 / -0.003similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, passing offense3433TCU2023OA +0.046 / -0.000similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3404Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3335Troy2019OA +0.097 / -0.123similar: pass defense, havoc rate, rushing offense331

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Abilene Christian56-9W----
2vs North Texas35-12W-22.0W71.5U
3@ Louisiana Tech39-37W-12.5L66O
4@ TCU42-34W+9.5W65.5O
5vs South Florida41-17W-21.0W68.25U
6@ Navy31-24W-13.5L55.5U
8vs Tulane55-26W----
9@ Houston37-44L+0.3L62O
10@ Memphis25-28L-5.5L70.5U
11vs UCF55-28W-7.5W60.5O
12@ Cincinnati14-48L+11.5L65U
13vs Tulsa31-34L-6.5L62O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off91thRush Off63thRed Zone Off42th3rd Down Off59thPass Def44thRush Def52thRed Zone Def85th3rd Down Def38th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08684th-0.00547th
Red Zone-0.06842th-0.19985th
Third Down+0.11559th+0.12738th
No Garbage Time+0.08684th-0.01046th
First Half+0.10583th-0.05165th
Second Half+0.06278th+0.03531th
Early Downs+0.02562th-0.00040th
Passing Downs+0.17791th+0.01044th
Standard Downs+0.04163th-0.01652th
Goal to Go-0.3558th+0.10833th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.6%Rush 47.4%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
465.9
Pts/Drive
2.93
3rd Down%
43.5%
3&Out%
18.1%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — SMU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSMUOpponents
Scoring
Points461341
Points / Game38.428.4
First Downs
Total299240
Rushing11680
Passing165139
Penalty1821
Rushing
Attempts422438
Yards1,9371,651
Yards / Carry4.63.8
Yards / Game161.4137.6
Touchdowns2015
Passing
Attempts468404
Completions313239
Completion %66.9%59.2%
Yards3,6543,337
Yards / Attempt7.88.3
Touchdowns3927
Interceptions1210
Passer Rating154.84145.65
Total Offense
Plays890842
Yards5,5914,988
Yards / Play6.35.9
Yards / Game465.9415.7
Punt Returns
Returns1512
Yards85108
Average5.79.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3525
Yards956561
Average27.322.4
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts4754
Yards1,8652,190
Average39.740.6
Interception Returns
Returns1012
Yards120107
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1119
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties6788
Yards627654
Yards / Game52.354.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2130:39
Third Downs
Attempts168179
Conversions7368
Conversion %43.5%38.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2430
Conversions1613
Conversion %66.7%43.3%
Red Zone
Trips5050
Scores (TD + FG)4238
Score %84.0%76.0%
Touchdowns3229
TD %64.0%58.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1819
Made1213
Pct66.7%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5839
Made5538
Pct94.8%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →