Fourth Down Data
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TCU

TCU

Horned FrogsBalanced
Big 12 Conference5-7#67 (+0.18)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
71· BRating
78· BPer play
67· CConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
42· CRating
33· DPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
52· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.046
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.000
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.083
Defensive EPA/play
+0.046
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.037
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.131
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.57

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.71
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.45
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#67
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#45
market 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#23
recruiting 44 spots higher
21 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where TCU ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
52th
Offensive EPA/play
79th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
85th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
76th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2018OA +0.089 / -0.076similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, pass defense3622SMU2021OA +0.036 / +0.011similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3423Arkansas State2020OA +0.026 / -0.039similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3304Buffalo2017OA +0.003 / -0.072similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive EPA3295Troy2019OA +0.097 / -0.123similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, turnover rate326

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Colorado42-45L-20.5L63.5O
2vs Nicholls State41-6W----
3@ Houston36-13W-7.5W64U
4vs SMU34-17W-6.5W63U
5vs West Virginia21-24L-14.0L52U
6@ Iowa State14-27L-6.5L52.5U
7vs BYU44-11W-5.5W53O
8@ Kansas State3-41L+6.5L59U
10@ Texas Tech28-35L----
11vs Texas26-29L+10.0W53.5O
12vs Baylor42-17W-13.0W58.5O
13@ Oklahoma45-69L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off57thRed Zone Off16th3rd Down Off81thPass Def32thRush Def56thRed Zone Def75th3rd Down Def53th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07777th+0.01747th
Red Zone-0.17316th-0.12875th
Third Down+0.33581th+0.16453th
No Garbage Time+0.08679th+0.04535th
First Half+0.01547th+0.06129th
Second Half+0.13793th-0.03662th
Early Downs+0.01269th+0.01831th
Passing Downs+0.22487th+0.11132th
Standard Downs+0.00357th-0.03156th
Goal to Go-0.2887th+0.26119th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.3%Rush 44.7%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
16.1%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
17.5
Yards/Game
466.7
Pts/Drive
2.57
3rd Down%
46.6%
3&Out%
13.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — TCU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTCUOpponents
Scoring
Points376334
Points / Game31.327.8
First Downs
Total301253
Rushing108102
Passing180124
Penalty1327
Rushing
Attempts406467
Yards1,8541,856
Yards / Carry4.64.0
Yards / Game154.5154.7
Touchdowns1921
Passing
Attempts503400
Completions319239
Completion %63.4%59.8%
Yards3,7463,044
Yards / Attempt7.47.6
Touchdowns2716
Interceptions158
Passer Rating137.73132.87
Total Offense
Plays909867
Yards5,6004,900
Yards / Play6.25.7
Yards / Game466.7408.3
Punt Returns
Returns1310
Yards15279
Average11.77.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3219
Yards675449
Average21.123.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts3847
Yards1,5611,927
Average41.141.0
Interception Returns
Returns815
Yards129131
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles127
Lost44
Penalties
Penalties7459
Yards643466
Yards / Game53.638.8
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2032:40
Third Downs
Attempts176180
Conversions8271
Conversion %46.6%39.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3231
Conversions1612
Conversion %50.0%38.7%
Red Zone
Trips5145
Scores (TD + FG)3739
Score %72.5%86.7%
Touchdowns3026
TD %58.8%57.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2124
Made1420
Pct66.7%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4636
Made4436
Pct95.7%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →