← All Teams
BUF
Buffalo
BullsBalancedMid-American Conference6-6#94 (-6.26)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
30· DOverall
Offense
25· DRating
75· BPer play
60· CConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
35· DPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
55· C3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.072
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.053
Defensive EPA/play
+0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
47.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.054
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#94
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 19 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense54th
Opp-adjusted defense26th
Offensive EPA/play76th
Defensive EPA/play35th
Offensive success rate62th
Explosiveness56th
Defensive havoc11th
Points per drive64th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: run defense, TD drive rate, pass defense3852Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3733Arkansas State2023OA +0.000 / -0.069similar: run defense, rushing offense, turnover rate3704Tulsa2022OA +0.049 / -0.044similar: offensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate3535Colorado2017OA -0.028 / -0.076similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense348
2017 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Minnesota | 7-17 | L | +22.5 | W | 51 | U |
| 2 | @ Army | 17-21 | L | +15.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 3 | vs Colgate | 33-10 | W | -23.5 | L | - | - |
| 4 | vs Florida Atlantic | 34-31 | W | -1.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 5 | @ Kent State | 27-13 | W | -7.5 | W | 41 | U |
| 6 | vs Western Michigan | 68-71 | L | +7.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Northern Illinois | 13-14 | L | +7.5 | W | 50 | U |
| 8 | @ Miami (OH) | 14-24 | L | +3.0 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Akron | 20-21 | L | -3.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Bowling Green | 38-28 | W | -7.0 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Ball State | 40-24 | W | -17.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Ohio | 31-24 | W | +6.5 | W | 55 | P |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
4-6-1
40.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.051 | 76th | +0.039 | 30th |
| Red Zone | -0.084 | 29th | -0.098 | 68th |
| Third Down | +0.029 | 56th | +0.003 | 47th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.051 | 74th | +0.039 | 34th |
| First Half | +0.110 | 87th | +0.044 | 33th |
| Second Half | -0.013 | 52th | +0.033 | 29th |
| Early Downs | -0.072 | 35th | +0.024 | 27th |
| Passing Downs | +0.179 | 88th | +0.131 | 18th |
| Standard Downs | -0.019 | 57th | -0.003 | 40th |
| Goal to Go | -0.322 | 11th | -0.238 | 81th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%
Havoc/Game
10.4
Havoc Rate
14.1%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
431.9
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
41.4%
3&Out%
15.5%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 12 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Buffalo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 342 | 298 |
| Points / Game | 28.5 | 24.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 251 | 258 |
| Rushing | 79 | 136 |
| Passing | 145 | 105 |
| Penalty | 27 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 428 | 534 |
| Yards | 1,693 | 2,338 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 141.1 | 194.8 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 400 | 336 |
| Completions | 234 | 199 |
| Completion % | 58.5% | 59.2% |
| Yards | 3,490 | 2,440 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.7 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 148.59 | 133.14 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 828 | 870 |
| Yards | 5,183 | 4,778 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 431.9 | 398.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 11 |
| Yards | 142 | 92 |
| Average | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 36 | 38 |
| Yards | 634 | 768 |
| Average | 17.6 | 20.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 60 |
| Yards | 2,274 | 2,484 |
| Average | 40.6 | 41.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 6 |
| Yards | 39 | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 17 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 67 | 68 |
| Yards | 597 | 643 |
| Yards / Game | 49.8 | 53.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:47 | 30:13 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 169 | 184 |
| Conversions | 70 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 41.4% | 41.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 20 |
| Conversions | 8 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 66.7% | 55.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 55 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 29 |
| Score % | 76.4% | 74.4% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 23 |
| TD % | 52.7% | 59.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 19 |
| Made | 15 | 9 |
| Pct | 62.5% | 47.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 35 |
| Made | 37 | 35 |
| Pct | 92.5% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.