Arkansas State Red Wolves Football Analytics

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ARST

Arkansas State

Red WolvesBalanced

Sun Belt Conference6-7#77 (-1.24)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall

Offense

45· CRating

56· CPer play

58· CConsistency

70· BBig plays

Defense

34· DRating

23· DPer play

62· CConsistency

Situational

11· FRed-zone O

62· CRed-zone D

9· F3rd down O

19· D3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

+0.000

Opp-Adj Defense

-0.069

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

+0.025

Defensive EPA/play

+0.064

lower = better

Off Success Rate

46.6%

Def Success Rate

46.4%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

25.1%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

24.5%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

-0.039

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

+0.094

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

2.19

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+1.02

expected pts/game

Kicking

-0.29

own kicking game

Kick Defense

+1.13

vs opponent kicks

Returns

+0.21

own return game

Return Defense

-0.04

vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank

#77

opponent-adjusted strength

AP Poll

NR

—

Market (Vegas)

#112

model 35 higher

Recruiting Rank

#76

recruiting 1 spots higher

0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

50th

Opp-adjusted defense

18th

Offensive EPA/play

56th

Defensive EPA/play

23th

Offensive success rate

51th

Explosiveness

70th

Defensive havoc

33th

Points per drive

53th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Buffalo2017OA +0.003 / -0.072similar: run defense, rushing offense, turnover rate372 2Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate343 3Northwestern2026OA +0.021 / -0.125similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, passing offense330 4Stanford2019OA +0.023 / -0.058similar: pass defense, passing offense, run defense328 5Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense327

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	@ Oklahoma	0-73	L	+35.5	L	58	O
2	vs Memphis	3-37	L	+21.0	L	57.5	U
3	vs Stony Brook	31-7	W	-23.5	W	47.5	U
4	vs Southern Miss	44-37	W	+6.0	W	48.5	O
5	@ Massachusetts	52-28	W	+2.0	W	56.5	O
6	@ Troy	3-37	L	+16.5	L	52	U
8	vs Coastal Carolina	17-27	L	+10.5	W	60.5	U
9	@ UL Monroe	34-24	W	+2.5	W	56.5	O
10	vs Louisiana	37-17	W	+9.5	W	60	U
11	@ South Alabama	14-21	L	+11.5	W	55	U
12	vs Texas State	77-31	W	+3.5	W	59.5	O
13	@ Marshall	21-35	L	+2.5	L	53.5	O
17	@ Northern Illinois	19-21	L	-2.5	L	54	U

Betting Profile

ATS Record

8-5

61.5%

O/U Record

6-7

46.2%

Straight Up

6-7

46.2%

Home ATS5-1

Away ATS3-4

Favorite ATS1-1

Underdog ATS7-4

Last 5 ATS

WWWLL

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	+0.014	50th	+0.075	19th
Red Zone	-0.201	11th	-0.069	62th
Third Down	-0.072	9th	+0.329	19th
No Garbage Time	+0.035	59th	+0.077	19th
First Half	+0.023	51th	+0.128	10th
Second Half	+0.005	48th	+0.019	45th
Early Downs	+0.049	82th	+0.030	23th
Passing Downs	+0.079	59th	+0.071	37th
Standard Downs	-0.022	47th	+0.077	19th
Goal to Go	+0.003	47th	+0.167	28th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.6%Rush 55.4%

Havoc/Game

12.8

Havoc Rate

17.2%

TO Margin

+0.2

Explosive/G

13.4

Yards/Game

373.6

Pts/Drive

2.19

3rd Down%

35.5%

3&Out%

18.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Arkansas State	Opponents
Scoring
Points	352	395
Points / Game	27.1	30.4
First Downs
Total	257	288
Rushing	101	123
Passing	130	132
Penalty	26	33
Rushing
Attempts	459	505
Yards	1,919	2,395
Yards / Carry	4.2	4.7
Yards / Game	147.6	184.2
Touchdowns	20	22
Passing
Attempts	370	431
Completions	208	296
Completion %	56.2%	68.7%
Yards	2,938	3,372
Yards / Attempt	7.9	7.8
Touchdowns	17	25
Interceptions	9	8
Passer Rating	133.21	149.83
Total Offense
Plays	829	936
Yards	4,857	5,767
Yards / Play	5.9	6.2
Yards / Game	373.6	443.6
Punt Returns
Returns	16	15
Yards	161	157
Average	10.1	10.5
Touchdowns	1	1
Kickoff Returns
Returns	30	34
Yards	761	645
Average	25.4	19.0
Touchdowns	1	0
Punting
Punts	61	57
Yards	2,635	2,316
Average	43.2	40.6
Interception Returns
Returns	8	9
Yards	194	87
Touchdowns	2	1
Fumbles
Fumbles	6	11
Lost	4	8
Penalties
Penalties	80	84
Yards	792	782
Yards / Game	60.9	60.2
Time of Possession
Per Game	26:17	33:43
Third Downs
Attempts	169	193
Conversions	60	79
Conversion %	35.5%	40.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	20	25
Conversions	7	19
Conversion %	35.0%	76.0%
Red Zone
Trips	45	57
Scores (TD + FG)	34	46
Score %	75.6%	80.7%
Touchdowns	23	34
TD %	51.1%	59.6%
Field Goals
Attempts	22	26
Made	17	17
Pct	77.3%	65.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	41	44
Made	41	44
Pct	100.0%	100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	2	4
Made	1	3

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →