Fourth Down Data
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GAST

Georgia State

PanthersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference7-6#84 (-2.35)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

38· DOverall
Offense
49· CRating
60· CPer play
56· CConsistency
47· CBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
23· DPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
2· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.002
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.083
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.037
Defensive EPA/play
+0.062
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.3%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.76
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#84
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#84
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 8 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
53th
Opp-adjusted defense
13th
Offensive EPA/play
61th
Defensive EPA/play
24th
Offensive success rate
62th
Explosiveness
47th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Hawai'i2017OA -0.026 / -0.193similar: turnover rate, pass defense, rushing offense3842Arkansas2022OA +0.169 / -0.023similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3663Western Michigan2018OA +0.035 / -0.079similar: run defense, rushing offense, defensive success rate3534Texas Tech2017OA +0.086 / -0.023similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3515Georgia Tech2021OA +0.003 / -0.081similar: run defense, pass defense, turnover rate349

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Rhode Island42-35W----
2vs UConn35-14W-3.0W54.5U
3@ Charlotte41-25W-7.5W51.5O
4@ Coastal Carolina30-17W----
5vs Troy7-28L-0.8L50.5U
7vs Marshall41-24W-1.0W55O
8@ Louisiana20-17W+1.5L64O
9@ Georgia Southern27-44L----
10vs James Madison14-42L+5.5L54.5O
11vs App State14-42L-2.0L60.5U
12@ LSU14-56L+31.0L71U
13@ Old Dominion24-25L+2.5W54.5U
17@ Utah State45-22W+2.5W59O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off63thRush Off69thRed Zone Off25th3rd Down Off87thPass Def17thRush Def30thRed Zone Def51th3rd Down Def2th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05266th+0.08216th
Red Zone-0.09825th-0.00951th
Third Down+0.37487th+0.5722th
No Garbage Time+0.05064th+0.06723th
First Half+0.08470th+0.05133th
Second Half+0.01353th+0.11410th
Early Downs-0.02452th+0.02129th
Passing Downs+0.09163th+0.15417th
Standard Downs+0.03169th+0.04330th
Goal to Go-0.18416th-0.10367th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.7%Rush 58.3%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
393.3
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
23.4%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Georgia State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia StateOpponents
Scoring
Points354391
Points / Game27.230.1
First Downs
Total254272
Rushing12695
Passing106151
Penalty2226
Rushing
Attempts513442
Yards2,4451,896
Yards / Carry4.84.3
Yards / Game188.1145.8
Touchdowns2518
Passing
Attempts367437
Completions249284
Completion %67.8%65.0%
Yards2,6683,633
Yards / Attempt7.38.3
Touchdowns2030
Interceptions711
Passer Rating143.08152.44
Total Offense
Plays880879
Yards5,1135,529
Yards / Play5.86.3
Yards / Game393.3425.3
Punt Returns
Returns926
Yards21309
Average2.311.9
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2123
Yards371476
Average17.720.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6049
Yards2,4541,932
Average40.939.4
Interception Returns
Returns117
Yards146115
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2017
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties8375
Yards748669
Yards / Game57.551.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3630:21
Third Downs
Attempts189182
Conversions8681
Conversion %45.5%44.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1926
Conversions911
Conversion %47.4%42.3%
Red Zone
Trips4848
Scores (TD + FG)3637
Score %75.0%77.1%
Touchdowns2828
TD %58.3%58.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1318
Made910
Pct69.2%55.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4647
Made4547
Pct97.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →