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LSU
LSU
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference10-3#26 (+5.78)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
81· BOverall
Offense
98· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
99· A+Big plays
Defense
10· FRating
3· FPer play
8· FConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.302
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.122
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.368
Defensive EPA/play
+0.178
lower = better
Off Success Rate
59.2%
Def Success Rate
48.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
31.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.190
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.054
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.84
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#26
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#12
AP 14 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#17
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#8
recruiting 18 spots higher
59 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where LSU ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense100th
Opp-adjusted defense5th
Offensive EPA/play100th
Defensive EPA/play2th
Offensive success rate100th
Explosiveness100th
Defensive havoc56th
Points per drive99th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1USC2023OA +0.112 / -0.071similar: run defense, pass defense, passing offense4242North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: takeaway rate, run defense, offensive EPA4233Oklahoma2018OA +0.342 / -0.100similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense4124Washington2022OA +0.217 / -0.064similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3935Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA390
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Florida State | 24-45 | L | -1.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Grambling State | 72-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Mississippi State | 41-14 | W | -9.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Arkansas | 34-31 | W | -17.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Ole Miss | 49-55 | L | -2.5 | L | 67.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Missouri | 49-39 | W | -5.5 | W | 64.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Auburn | 48-18 | W | -11.0 | W | 60 | O |
| 8 | vs Army | 62-0 | W | -30.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Alabama | 28-42 | L | +3.0 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Florida | 52-35 | W | -13.5 | W | 63.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Georgia State | 56-14 | W | -31.0 | W | 71 | U |
| 13 | vs Texas A&M | 42-30 | W | -11.3 | W | 66 | O |
| 18 | vs Wisconsin | 35-31 | W | -9.0 | L | 57 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
11-1
91.7%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.368 | 100th | +0.125 | 7th |
| Red Zone | +0.207 | 87th | +0.325 | 2th |
| Third Down | +0.611 | 99th | +0.524 | 4th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.375 | 100th | +0.165 | 3th |
| First Half | +0.340 | 99th | +0.145 | 9th |
| Second Half | +0.400 | 100th | +0.105 | 16th |
| Early Downs | +0.311 | 100th | +0.058 | 14th |
| Passing Downs | +0.524 | 99th | +0.186 | 11th |
| Standard Downs | +0.312 | 100th | +0.093 | 9th |
| Goal to Go | +0.134 | 74th | +0.159 | 30th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.9%Rush 51.1%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
17.8
Yards/Game
543.5
Pts/Drive
3.84
3rd Down%
55.0%
3&Out%
11.8%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — LSU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | LSU | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 592 | 364 |
| Points / Game | 45.5 | 28.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 336 | 274 |
| Rushing | 128 | 116 |
| Passing | 182 | 144 |
| Penalty | 26 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 430 | 462 |
| Yards | 2,659 | 2,093 |
| Yards / Carry | 6.2 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 204.5 | 161.0 |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 411 | 420 |
| Completions | 286 | 268 |
| Completion % | 69.6% | 63.8% |
| Yards | 4,406 | 3,323 |
| Yards / Attempt | 10.7 | 7.9 |
| Touchdowns | 44 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 192.53 | 143.58 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 841 | 882 |
| Yards | 7,065 | 5,416 |
| Yards / Play | 8.4 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 543.5 | 416.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 2 |
| Yards | 74 | -1 |
| Average | 10.6 | -0.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 35 |
| Yards | 399 | 723 |
| Average | 19.0 | 20.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 26 | 43 |
| Yards | 1,064 | 1,866 |
| Average | 40.9 | 43.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 5 |
| Yards | 107 | 38 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 12 |
| Lost | 3 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 79 | 92 |
| Yards | 672 | 744 |
| Yards / Game | 51.7 | 57.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:51 | 31:08 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 129 | 174 |
| Conversions | 71 | 78 |
| Conversion % | 55.0% | 44.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 30 |
| Conversions | 6 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 43.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 65 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 59 | 41 |
| Score % | 90.8% | 89.1% |
| Touchdowns | 49 | 33 |
| TD % | 75.4% | 71.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 18 |
| Made | 12 | 11 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 61.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 78 | 41 |
| Made | 78 | 41 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 6 |
| Made | 1 | 4 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.