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WASH
Washington
HuskiesPass-HeavyBig Ten Conference11-2#12 (+8.05)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
91· A-Overall
Offense
97· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
94· AConsistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
40· CRating
12· FPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
53· CRed-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
3· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.217
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.064
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.241
Defensive EPA/play
+0.092
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.1%
Def Success Rate
48.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.149
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.047
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.73
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.26
own return game
Return Defense
+0.44
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#12
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#8
AP 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#25
model 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#20
model 8 spots higher
24 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Washington ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense98th
Opp-adjusted defense23th
Offensive EPA/play99th
Defensive EPA/play13th
Offensive success rate95th
Explosiveness99th
Defensive havoc31th
Points per drive99th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1LSU2023OA +0.302 / -0.122similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3932Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate3843North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3674North Carolina2021OA +0.091 / -0.074similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3595North Carolina2022OA +0.207 / -0.152similar: passing offense, pass defense, offensive EPA353
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Kent State | 45-20 | W | -23.0 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Portland State | 52-6 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs Michigan State | 39-28 | W | -3.5 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Stanford | 40-22 | W | -3.0 | L | 64.5 | O |
| 5 | @ UCLA | 32-40 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | @ Arizona State | 38-45 | L | -13.5 | L | 56 | O |
| 7 | vs Arizona | 49-39 | W | -14.0 | L | 73 | O |
| 8 | @ California | 28-21 | W | -7.5 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Oregon State | 24-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ Oregon | 37-34 | W | +13.5 | W | 72.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Colorado | 54-7 | W | -31.0 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Washington State | 51-33 | W | -2.0 | W | 61 | O |
| 18 | vs Texas | 27-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.209 | 99th | +0.088 | 12th |
| Red Zone | +0.022 | 53th | -0.091 | 60th |
| Third Down | +0.544 | 99th | +0.474 | 3th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.233 | 99th | +0.090 | 13th |
| First Half | +0.159 | 93th | +0.029 | 31th |
| Second Half | +0.259 | 99th | +0.146 | 3th |
| Early Downs | +0.095 | 88th | -0.056 | 65th |
| Passing Downs | +0.413 | 100th | +0.296 | 4th |
| Standard Downs | +0.116 | 91th | -0.025 | 50th |
| Goal to Go | +0.048 | 65th | -0.104 | 60th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 59.0%Rush 41.0%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
16.6%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
19.7
Yards/Game
516.2
Pts/Drive
3.73
3rd Down%
56.8%
3&Out%
8.9%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Washington vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Washington | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 516 | 336 |
| Points / Game | 39.7 | 25.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 354 | 276 |
| Rushing | 113 | 106 |
| Passing | 222 | 145 |
| Penalty | 19 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 400 | 448 |
| Yards | 1,904 | 1,576 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 146.5 | 121.2 |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 575 | 418 |
| Completions | 373 | 263 |
| Completion % | 64.9% | 62.9% |
| Yards | 4,807 | 3,269 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.4 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 26 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 150.33 | 145.79 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 975 | 866 |
| Yards | 6,711 | 4,845 |
| Yards / Play | 6.9 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 516.2 | 372.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 9 |
| Yards | 121 | 55 |
| Average | 11.0 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 52 |
| Yards | 487 | 936 |
| Average | 19.5 | 18.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 25 | 45 |
| Yards | 968 | 1,949 |
| Average | 38.7 | 43.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 9 |
| Yards | 2 | 106 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 16 |
| Lost | 2 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 89 | 78 |
| Yards | 786 | 619 |
| Yards / Game | 60.5 | 47.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:21 | 28:39 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 183 | 182 |
| Conversions | 104 | 81 |
| Conversion % | 56.8% | 44.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 37 |
| Conversions | 16 | 18 |
| Conversion % | 57.1% | 48.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 68 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 59 | 32 |
| Score % | 86.8% | 78.0% |
| Touchdowns | 45 | 24 |
| TD % | 66.2% | 58.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 15 |
| Made | 19 | 13 |
| Pct | 86.4% | 86.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 61 | 35 |
| Made | 59 | 35 |
| Pct | 96.7% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 7 |
| Made | 3 | 4 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.