Fourth Down Data
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USC

USC

TrojansBalanced
Big Ten Conference8-5#41 (+3.59)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

70· BOverall
Offense
95· ARating
91· A-Per play
87· BConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
14· FRating
8· FPer play
17· DConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
97· A+3rd down O
14· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.112
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.071
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.146
Defensive EPA/play
+0.129
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.3%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.017
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.13

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.81
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.18
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#41
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#11
market 30 higher
Recruiting Rank
#18
recruiting 23 spots higher
35 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
92th
Opp-adjusted defense
16th
Offensive EPA/play
92th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
88th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
53th
Points per drive
96th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Houston2022OA +0.127 / -0.048similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, passing offense4422LSU2023OA +0.302 / -0.122similar: pass defense, run defense, passing offense4243Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3804Duke2025OA +0.147 / -0.119similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate3765North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: TD drive rate, run defense, passing offense372

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs San José State56-28W-31.0L66.25O
1vs Nevada66-14W-38.0W66.5O
2vs Stanford56-10W-29.0W69.5U
4@ Arizona State42-28W-34.5L62O
5@ Colorado48-41W-21.5L73.5O
6vs Arizona43-41W-21.5L72O
7@ Notre Dame20-48L+2.5L63O
8vs Utah32-34L-7.0L56O
9@ California50-49W-11.0L67.5O
10vs Washington42-52L+3.5L76O
11@ Oregon27-36L+15.0W73.5U
12vs UCLA20-38L-6.5L65.5U
18vs Louisville42-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
10-3
76.9%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS2-7
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off88thRed Zone Off92th3rd Down Off98thPass Def16thRush Def1thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def14th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.17496th+0.1355th
Red Zone+0.26392th+0.17314th
Third Down+0.53898th+0.37014th
No Garbage Time+0.16096th+0.1437th
First Half+0.21093th+0.1606th
Second Half+0.13190th+0.11013th
Early Downs+0.03878th+0.06113th
Passing Downs+0.34296th+0.15616th
Standard Downs+0.09588th+0.1241th
Goal to Go+0.20885th+0.3898th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 56.0%Rush 44.0%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
467.6
Pts/Drive
3.13
3rd Down%
43.4%
3&Out%
14.5%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUSCOpponents
Scoring
Points544447
Points / Game41.834.4
First Downs
Total294295
Rushing88127
Passing183134
Penalty2334
Rushing
Attempts362506
Yards1,7502,424
Yards / Carry4.84.8
Yards / Game134.6186.5
Touchdowns3325
Passing
Attempts461417
Completions314267
Completion %68.1%64.0%
Yards4,3293,203
Yards / Attempt9.47.7
Touchdowns3731
Interceptions67
Passer Rating170.88149.72
Total Offense
Plays823923
Yards6,0795,627
Yards / Play7.46.1
Yards / Game467.6432.8
Punt Returns
Returns206
Yards35730
Average17.95.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3042
Yards546925
Average18.222.0
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts4452
Yards1,9062,109
Average43.340.6
Interception Returns
Returns76
Yards127122
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2621
Lost119
Penalties
Penalties9582
Yards844710
Yards / Game64.954.6
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4032:20
Third Downs
Attempts143181
Conversions6279
Conversion %43.4%43.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1828
Conversions1117
Conversion %61.1%60.7%
Red Zone
Trips6055
Scores (TD + FG)5250
Score %86.7%90.9%
Touchdowns4538
TD %75.0%69.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1518
Made1012
Pct66.7%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6851
Made6651
Pct97.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts79
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →