← All Teams
HOU
Houston
CougarsBalancedBig 12 Conference8-5#45 (+2.89)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
67· COverall
Offense
89· BRating
84· BPer play
88· BConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
20· DRating
17· DPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
79· B3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.127
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.048
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.106
Defensive EPA/play
+0.081
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.8%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.017
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.85
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.81
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.49
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.68
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#45
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#41
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 19 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense88th
Opp-adjusted defense28th
Offensive EPA/play85th
Defensive EPA/play17th
Offensive success rate88th
Explosiveness90th
Defensive havoc78th
Points per drive87th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1USC2023OA +0.112 / -0.071similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, passing offense4422Florida2020OA +0.063 / -0.013similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3853Colorado State2017OA +0.040 / -0.109similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3634Oklahoma2019OA +0.243 / -0.017similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive EPA3535Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate344
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ UTSA | 37-35 | W | -4.0 | L | 62 | O |
| 2 | @ Texas Tech | 30-33 | L | +4.5 | W | - | - |
| 3 | vs Kansas | 30-48 | L | -8.5 | L | 58 | O |
| 4 | vs Rice | 34-27 | W | -2.5 | L | 55 | U |
| 5 | vs Tulane | 24-27 | L | +2.0 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Memphis | 33-32 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | @ Navy | 38-20 | W | -3.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 9 | vs South Florida | 42-27 | W | -17.5 | L | 61 | O |
| 10 | @ SMU | 63-77 | L | +3.0 | L | 66.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Temple | 43-36 | W | -20.0 | L | 57 | O |
| 12 | @ East Carolina | 42-3 | W | +6.0 | W | 67 | U |
| 13 | vs Tulsa | 30-37 | L | -12.0 | L | 67 | P |
| 17 | vs Louisiana | 23-16 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8-1
33.3%
O/U Record
8-3-1
72.7%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS0-6
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-7
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWLP
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.109 | 87th | +0.073 | 17th |
| Red Zone | +0.223 | 96th | +0.084 | 30th |
| Third Down | +0.239 | 80th | +0.473 | 4th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.103 | 86th | +0.079 | 15th |
| First Half | +0.092 | 77th | +0.205 | 4th |
| Second Half | +0.124 | 90th | -0.068 | 70th |
| Early Downs | +0.050 | 78th | -0.065 | 70th |
| Passing Downs | +0.221 | 93th | +0.186 | 10th |
| Standard Downs | +0.055 | 73th | +0.005 | 39th |
| Goal to Go | -0.006 | 56th | -0.128 | 63th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 55.4%Rush 44.6%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
17.9
Yards/Game
456.0
Pts/Drive
2.85
3rd Down%
45.7%
3&Out%
13.3%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Houston | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 469 | 418 |
| Points / Game | 36.1 | 32.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 306 | 303 |
| Rushing | 94 | 111 |
| Passing | 194 | 162 |
| Penalty | 18 | 30 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 402 | 449 |
| Yards | 1,846 | 1,859 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 142.0 | 143.0 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 500 | 479 |
| Completions | 337 | 304 |
| Completion % | 67.4% | 63.5% |
| Yards | 4,082 | 3,622 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.2 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 40 | 32 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 158.38 | 145.69 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 902 | 928 |
| Yards | 5,928 | 5,481 |
| Yards / Play | 6.6 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 456.0 | 421.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 15 |
| Yards | 180 | 87 |
| Average | 15.0 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 44 | 29 |
| Yards | 897 | 536 |
| Average | 20.4 | 18.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 40 | 39 |
| Yards | 1,749 | 1,667 |
| Average | 43.7 | 42.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 10 |
| Yards | 222 | 139 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 22 |
| Lost | 9 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 103 | 41 |
| Yards | 915 | 396 |
| Yards / Game | 70.4 | 30.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:51 | 30:08 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 175 | 179 |
| Conversions | 80 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 45.7% | 43.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 34 |
| Conversions | 18 | 19 |
| Conversion % | 66.7% | 55.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 62 | 54 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 55 | 50 |
| Score % | 88.7% | 92.6% |
| Touchdowns | 41 | 35 |
| TD % | 66.1% | 64.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 26 |
| Made | 14 | 20 |
| Pct | 70.0% | 76.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 57 | 45 |
| Made | 55 | 44 |
| Pct | 96.5% | 97.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 6 |
| Made | 3 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.