Fourth Down Data
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CSU

Colorado State

RamsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference7-6#85 (-2.86)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

36· DOverall
Offense
56· CRating
86· BPer play
85· BConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
36· DRating
20· DPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
82· BRed-zone O
79· BRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.040
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.109
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.105
Defensive EPA/play
+0.081
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.2%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.024
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.031
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.77

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.56
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#85
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 10 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Colorado State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
68th
Opp-adjusted defense
16th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
20th
Offensive success rate
88th
Explosiveness
78th
Defensive havoc
41th
Points per drive
86th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate4242Texas2019OA +0.093 / +0.011similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense4033UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3934Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, passing offense3925Ohio2019OA +0.101 / -0.101similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA388

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Oregon State58-27W----
1@ Colorado3-17L-3.0L58.5O
2vs Abilene Christian38-10W-43.0L--
3@ Alabama23-41L+31.0W55.5O
5@ Hawai'i51-21W-6.5W64.5O
6@ Utah State27-14W-9.5W66U
7vs Nevada44-42W-24.0L65.5O
8@ New Mexico27-24W-9.5L61U
9vs Air Force28-45L-9.5L68.5O
10@ Wyoming13-16L-4.0L48.5U
11vs Boise State52-59L+6.5L59.5O
12vs San José State42-14W-32.5L67.5U
16vs Marshall28-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8
27.3%
O/U Record
6-4
60.0%
Straight Up
6-5
54.5%
Home ATS0-6
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-7
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off81thRed Zone Off83th3rd Down Off93thPass Def14thRush Def25thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def22th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11090th+0.07720th
Red Zone+0.17783th-0.15080th
Third Down+0.28493th+0.14122th
No Garbage Time+0.10186th+0.08617th
First Half+0.20095th+0.09323th
Second Half+0.00758th+0.06318th
Early Downs+0.06483th+0.05817th
Passing Downs+0.19092th+0.15714th
Standard Downs+0.06981th+0.03725th
Goal to Go+0.15075th-0.32388th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.0%Rush 53.0%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
17.6
Yards/Game
492.5
Pts/Drive
2.77
3rd Down%
50.3%
3&Out%
12.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Colorado State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColorado StateOpponents
Scoring
Points434361
Points / Game33.427.8
First Downs
Total331277
Rushing134118
Passing174135
Penalty2324
Rushing
Attempts518474
Yards2,6032,432
Yards / Carry5.05.1
Yards / Game200.2187.1
Touchdowns2622
Passing
Attempts459418
Completions284237
Completion %61.9%56.7%
Yards3,7993,179
Yards / Attempt8.37.6
Touchdowns2921
Interceptions1012
Passer Rating147.89131.42
Total Offense
Plays977892
Yards6,4025,611
Yards / Play6.66.3
Yards / Game492.5431.6
Punt Returns
Returns1413
Yards122136
Average8.710.5
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns2435
Yards517751
Average21.521.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4859
Yards2,1112,519
Average44.042.7
Interception Returns
Returns1210
Yards76108
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1114
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties8173
Yards741633
Yards / Game57.048.7
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5628:04
Third Downs
Attempts183179
Conversions9279
Conversion %50.3%44.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2018
Conversions77
Conversion %35.0%38.9%
Red Zone
Trips6332
Scores (TD + FG)5426
Score %85.7%81.3%
Touchdowns4419
TD %69.8%59.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1819
Made1513
Pct83.3%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5546
Made5346
Pct96.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →