Fourth Down Data
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MIA

Miami

HurricanesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference10-3#9 (+8.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

93· AOverall
Offense
99· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
99· A+Big plays
Defense
35· DRating
30· DPer play
58· CConsistency
Situational
82· BRed-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
42· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.244
Defensive EPA/play
+0.035
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.9%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
31.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.209
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.050
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.76

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.23
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.54
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.61
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#9
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#18
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#3
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#12
model 3 spots higher
52 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
100th
Opp-adjusted defense
31th
Offensive EPA/play
100th
Defensive EPA/play
30th
Offensive success rate
100th
Explosiveness
100th
Defensive havoc
87th
Points per drive
100th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense4272Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3843Oklahoma2019OA +0.243 / -0.017similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, turnover rate3734Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3725Louisville2024OA +0.056 / +0.004similar: run defense, passing offense, takeaway rate365

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Florida41-17W-2.5W54O
2vs Florida A&M56-9W-47.5L55O
3vs Ball State62-0W-36.5W55.5O
4@ South Florida50-15W-17.5L54O
5vs Virginia Tech38-34W----
6@ California39-38W-10.5L53.5O
8@ Louisville52-45W-5.0W61O
9vs Florida State36-14W-21.0W54.5U
10vs Duke53-31W-21.0W54.5O
11@ Georgia Tech23-28L-11.0L63.5U
13vs Wake Forest42-14W-24.5W64.5U
14@ Syracuse38-42L-10.5L67.5O
18vs Iowa State41-42L-3.5L55.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
9-3-1
75.0%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS7-6
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off99thRush Off99thRed Zone Off83th3rd Down Off99thPass Def10thRush Def89thRed Zone Def43th3rd Down Def43th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.245100th-0.00148th
Red Zone+0.18983th+0.03443th
Third Down+0.42999th+0.11243th
No Garbage Time+0.242100th+0.04428th
First Half+0.19796th+0.08816th
Second Half+0.29299th-0.09386th
Early Downs+0.220100th-0.11686th
Passing Downs+0.31299th+0.17010th
Standard Downs+0.21799th-0.11089th
Goal to Go+0.09863th+0.20811th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.0%Rush 47.0%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
22.4%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
19.2
Yards/Game
537.2
Pts/Drive
3.76
3rd Down%
56.3%
3&Out%
5.5%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Miami vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiamiOpponents
Scoring
Points571329
Points / Game43.925.3
First Downs
Total351239
Rushing13479
Passing194127
Penalty2333
Rushing
Attempts433391
Yards2,4561,466
Yards / Carry5.73.7
Yards / Game188.9112.8
Touchdowns3016
Passing
Attempts489416
Completions328240
Completion %67.1%57.7%
Yards4,5272,787
Yards / Attempt9.36.7
Touchdowns4122
Interceptions814
Passer Rating169.24124.69
Total Offense
Plays922807
Yards6,9834,253
Yards / Play7.65.3
Yards / Game537.2327.2
Punt Returns
Returns179
Yards12874
Average7.58.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2525
Yards559624
Average22.425.0
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts2557
Yards1,0632,556
Average42.544.8
Interception Returns
Returns148
Yards220154
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1212
Lost84
Penalties
Penalties8666
Yards878514
Yards / Game67.539.5
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4327:17
Third Downs
Attempts160164
Conversions9060
Conversion %56.3%36.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2028
Conversions1316
Conversion %65.0%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips6540
Scores (TD + FG)6033
Score %92.3%82.5%
Touchdowns4727
TD %72.3%67.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2014
Made1912
Pct95.0%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6642
Made6641
Pct100.0%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts70
Made50
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →