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WMU
Western Michigan
BroncosRun-HeavyMid-American Conference8-5#67 (+0.35)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
50· COverall
Offense
84· BRating
89· BPer play
95· AConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
60· CPer play
94· AConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
68· C3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.092
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.023
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.101
Defensive EPA/play
-0.044
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.8%
Def Success Rate
41.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.145
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.135
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.76
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-4.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-2.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.49
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
-1.43
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#67
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#48
market 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 5 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Western Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense83th
Opp-adjusted defense63th
Offensive EPA/play90th
Defensive EPA/play61th
Offensive success rate96th
Explosiveness71th
Defensive havoc98th
Points per drive85th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Florida State2022OA +0.148 / +0.042similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate4392Kansas2026OA +0.033 / +0.069similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3903Wake Forest2022OA +0.103 / -0.002similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3294Louisville2024OA +0.056 / +0.004similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3255Ohio State2018OA +0.108 / +0.044similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense324
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Michigan | 14-47 | L | +17.0 | L | 67 | U |
| 2 | vs Illinois State | 28-0 | W | -11.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Pittsburgh | 44-41 | W | +15.0 | W | 59 | O |
| 4 | vs San José State | 23-3 | W | -2.5 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Buffalo | 24-17 | W | -7.0 | P | 59.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Ball State | 20-45 | L | -11.0 | L | 58 | O |
| 7 | vs Kent State | 64-31 | W | -6.5 | W | 65.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Toledo | 15-34 | L | -1.8 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Central Michigan | 30-42 | L | -24.5 | L | 62 | O |
| 11 | vs Akron | 45-40 | W | -6.0 | L | 66 | U |
| 12 | @ Eastern Michigan | 21-22 | L | -5.5 | W | 61 | O |
| 13 | @ Northern Illinois | 42-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 17 | @ Nevada | 52-24 | W | -7.0 | W | 57 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.094 | 87th | -0.001 | 44th |
| Red Zone | -0.022 | 52th | -0.162 | 78th |
| Third Down | +0.168 | 69th | -0.285 | 98th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.092 | 87th | -0.044 | 62th |
| First Half | +0.168 | 92th | -0.046 | 64th |
| Second Half | +0.005 | 49th | +0.040 | 28th |
| Early Downs | +0.095 | 89th | +0.079 | 14th |
| Passing Downs | +0.123 | 85th | -0.085 | 71th |
| Standard Downs | +0.082 | 78th | +0.050 | 26th |
| Goal to Go | -0.007 | 56th | -0.282 | 79th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.5%Rush 61.5%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
24.6%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
17.5
Yards/Game
467.8
Pts/Drive
2.76
3rd Down%
46.1%
3&Out%
12.9%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Western Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Western Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 422 | 367 |
| Points / Game | 32.5 | 28.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 322 | 223 |
| Rushing | 152 | 105 |
| Passing | 141 | 96 |
| Penalty | 29 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 590 | 420 |
| Yards | 2,783 | 1,886 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 214.1 | 145.1 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 369 | 321 |
| Completions | 234 | 177 |
| Completion % | 63.4% | 55.1% |
| Yards | 3,298 | 2,423 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.9 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 4 |
| Passer Rating | 155.81 | 139.70 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 959 | 741 |
| Yards | 6,081 | 4,309 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 467.8 | 331.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 16 |
| Yards | 27 | 318 |
| Average | 2.7 | 19.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 53 |
| Yards | 536 | 1,105 |
| Average | 19.9 | 20.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 47 | 63 |
| Yards | 1,985 | 2,690 |
| Average | 42.2 | 42.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 4 | 6 |
| Yards | 22 | 50 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 19 |
| Lost | 10 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 89 | 79 |
| Yards | 766 | 734 |
| Yards / Game | 58.9 | 56.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 35:17 | 24:12 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 180 | 153 |
| Conversions | 83 | 41 |
| Conversion % | 46.1% | 26.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 22 |
| Conversions | 12 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 46.2% | 68.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 45 | 36 |
| Score % | 83.3% | 87.8% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 20 |
| TD % | 61.1% | 48.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 22 |
| Made | 12 | 16 |
| Pct | 66.7% | 72.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 55 | 44 |
| Made | 50 | 41 |
| Pct | 90.9% | 93.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.