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PSU
Penn State
Nittany LionsRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference7-6#27 (+11.46)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
80· BOverall
Offense
81· BRating
75· BPer play
82· BConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
51· CPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.109
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.024
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.074
Defensive EPA/play
-0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.9%
Def Success Rate
44.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.093
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.158
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.79
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.94
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.77
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#27
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#21
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#7
recruiting 20 spots higher
66 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense83th
Opp-adjusted defense64th
Offensive EPA/play75th
Defensive EPA/play51th
Offensive success rate81th
Explosiveness52th
Defensive havoc66th
Points per drive84th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA3722Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense3533Kansas State2024OA +0.024 / +0.031similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3394LSU2017OA +0.097 / +0.076similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, turnover rate3315Michigan2021OA +0.126 / +0.077similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, TD drive rate331
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Nevada | 46-11 | W | -43.3 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Florida International | 34-0 | W | -42.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Villanova | 52-6 | W | -47.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Oregon | 24-30 | L | -3.5 | L | 53 | O |
| 6 | @ UCLA | 37-42 | L | +0.5 | L | 70.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Northwestern | 21-22 | L | -2.5 | L | 42 | O |
| 8 | @ Iowa | 24-25 | L | +3.0 | W | 41 | O |
| 10 | @ Ohio State | 14-38 | L | +19.0 | L | 45 | O |
| 11 | vs Indiana | 24-27 | L | +14.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 12 | @ Michigan State | 28-10 | W | -9.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Nebraska | 37-10 | W | -7.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Rutgers | 40-36 | W | -13.5 | L | 61.25 | O |
| 18 | @ Clemson | 22-10 | W | +2.5 | W | 48 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
10-3
76.9%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.076 | 77th | -0.033 | 58th |
| Red Zone | +0.144 | 81th | -0.214 | 87th |
| Third Down | +0.063 | 44th | +0.225 | 13th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.069 | 74th | -0.017 | 50th |
| First Half | +0.017 | 55th | -0.045 | 61th |
| Second Half | +0.137 | 87th | -0.020 | 51th |
| Early Downs | +0.127 | 96th | -0.100 | 81th |
| Passing Downs | -0.025 | 48th | +0.035 | 33th |
| Standard Downs | +0.116 | 89th | -0.067 | 73th |
| Goal to Go | +0.118 | 65th | -0.338 | 86th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.6%Rush 58.4%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
19.4%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
362.0
Pts/Drive
2.79
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
16.5%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Penn State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 403 | 267 |
| Points / Game | 31.0 | 20.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 256 | 229 |
| Rushing | 130 | 106 |
| Passing | 116 | 103 |
| Penalty | 10 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 475 | 457 |
| Yards | 2,267 | 1,853 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 174.4 | 142.5 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 339 | 366 |
| Completions | 226 | 230 |
| Completion % | 66.7% | 62.8% |
| Yards | 2,439 | 2,395 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 138.55 | 128.96 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 814 | 823 |
| Yards | 4,706 | 4,248 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 362.0 | 326.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 9 |
| Yards | 146 | 72 |
| Average | 7.3 | 8.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 18 |
| Yards | 472 | 374 |
| Average | 19.7 | 20.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 38 | 47 |
| Yards | 1,749 | 1,831 |
| Average | 46.0 | 39.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 7 |
| Yards | 81 | 63 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 12 |
| Lost | 3 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 53 | 47 |
| Yards | 485 | 358 |
| Yards / Game | 37.3 | 27.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:30 | 30:30 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 163 | 176 |
| Conversions | 71 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 43.6% | 40.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 33 |
| Conversions | 19 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 59.4% | 45.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 38 |
| Score % | 88.9% | 82.6% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 27 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 58.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 21 |
| Made | 18 | 15 |
| Pct | 94.7% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 46 | 24 |
| Made | 45 | 24 |
| Pct | 97.8% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 8 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.