← All Teams
OHIO
Ohio
BobcatsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference7-6#57 (+1.59)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
58· COverall
Offense
73· BRating
89· BPer play
83· BConsistency
91· A-Big plays
Defense
27· DRating
24· DPer play
27· DConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.101
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.101
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.123
Defensive EPA/play
+0.070
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.053
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.134
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.78
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.21
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.69
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.32
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#57
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 18 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ohio ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense84th
Opp-adjusted defense13th
Offensive EPA/play90th
Defensive EPA/play25th
Offensive success rate82th
Explosiveness92th
Defensive havoc31th
Points per drive87th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3922Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3913Colorado State2017OA +0.040 / -0.109similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3884Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: rushing offense, pass defense, run defense3735Cincinnati2025OA +0.189 / -0.095similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA373
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Rhode Island | 41-20 | W | -10.5 | L | 62.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Pittsburgh | 10-20 | L | +4.0 | L | 54 | U |
| 3 | @ Marshall | 31-33 | L | +4.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Louisiana | 25-45 | L | -3.0 | L | 68.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Buffalo | 21-20 | W | -3.0 | L | 53 | U |
| 7 | vs Northern Illinois | 36-39 | L | -4.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 8 | vs Kent State | 45-38 | W | -9.0 | L | 64.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Ball State | 34-21 | W | +1.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 11 | vs Miami (OH) | 21-24 | L | -7.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Western Michigan | 34-37 | L | -1.0 | L | 64 | O |
| 13 | @ Bowling Green | 66-24 | W | -21.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 14 | @ Akron | 52-3 | W | -27.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 19 | @ Nevada | 30-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS0-5
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS2-7
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.127 | 93th | +0.041 | 31th |
| Red Zone | +0.150 | 81th | -0.043 | 58th |
| Third Down | +0.032 | 51th | +0.164 | 22th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.131 | 90th | +0.064 | 27th |
| First Half | +0.097 | 78th | -0.003 | 52th |
| Second Half | +0.154 | 95th | +0.089 | 16th |
| Early Downs | +0.175 | 99th | -0.031 | 64th |
| Passing Downs | +0.067 | 63th | +0.096 | 28th |
| Standard Downs | +0.154 | 97th | +0.011 | 43th |
| Goal to Go | +0.113 | 70th | -0.335 | 86th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.9%Rush 61.1%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
16.9%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
442.2
Pts/Drive
2.78
3rd Down%
49.4%
3&Out%
16.2%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Ohio vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ohio | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 446 | 345 |
| Points / Game | 34.3 | 26.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 297 | 270 |
| Rushing | 148 | 123 |
| Passing | 126 | 127 |
| Penalty | 23 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 526 | 464 |
| Yards | 2,883 | 2,162 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.5 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 221.8 | 166.3 |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 335 | 418 |
| Completions | 203 | 250 |
| Completion % | 60.6% | 59.8% |
| Yards | 2,866 | 3,086 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.6 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 149.57 | 136.01 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 861 | 882 |
| Yards | 5,749 | 5,248 |
| Yards / Play | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 442.2 | 403.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 15 |
| Yards | 154 | 92 |
| Average | 5.3 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 35 | 36 |
| Yards | 803 | 580 |
| Average | 22.9 | 16.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 50 | 64 |
| Yards | 2,043 | 2,550 |
| Average | 40.9 | 39.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 6 |
| Yards | 23 | 40 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 17 |
| Lost | 13 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 70 | 76 |
| Yards | 627 | 685 |
| Yards / Game | 48.2 | 52.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:45 | 28:15 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 168 | 177 |
| Conversions | 83 | 70 |
| Conversion % | 49.4% | 39.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 19 |
| Conversions | 5 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 55.6% | 57.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 59 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 53 | 37 |
| Score % | 89.8% | 82.2% |
| Touchdowns | 41 | 26 |
| TD % | 69.5% | 57.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 25 |
| Made | 16 | 17 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 68.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 54 | 39 |
| Made | 54 | 36 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 92.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.