Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
CIN

Cincinnati

BearcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#33 (+8.62)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
91· A-Rating
87· BPer play
79· BConsistency
90· A-Big plays
Defense
34· DRating
4· FPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.189
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.095
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.129
Defensive EPA/play
+0.132
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.9%
Def Success Rate
49.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.003
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.116
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.82
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#33
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#25
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#55
model 22 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
16th
Offensive EPA/play
88th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
82th
Explosiveness
91th
Defensive havoc
10th
Points per drive
81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas2022OA +0.219 / -0.086similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3802North Texas2020OA +0.038 / -0.073similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, rushing offense3753Ohio2019OA +0.101 / -0.101similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3734North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, run defense3525North Carolina2021OA +0.091 / -0.074similar: run defense, TD drive rate, pass defense349

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Nebraska17-20L----
2vs Bowling Green34-20W-23.5L50.5O
3vs Northwestern State70-0W-68.5W69.5O
5@ Kansas37-34W+4.5W56.5O
6vs Iowa State38-30W-1.0W55.5O
7vs UCF20-11W-11.0L55U
8@ Oklahoma State49-17W-24.0W58O
9vs Baylor41-20W-18.0W61.5U
10@ Utah14-45L+10.5L57.5O
12vs Arizona24-30L-6.5L56.5U
13vs BYU14-26L+2.5L56.5U
14@ TCU23-45L+3.5L57O
19vs Navy13-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-5
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off89thRush Off83thRed Zone Off93th3rd Down Off59thPass Def20thRush Def8thRed Zone Def59th3rd Down Def19th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12789th+0.10510th
Red Zone+0.22593th-0.04359th
Third Down+0.12559th+0.19219th
No Garbage Time+0.11888th+0.1237th
First Half+0.19696th+0.07319th
Second Half+0.04171th+0.1365th
Early Downs+0.06983th+0.0868th
Passing Downs+0.19089th+0.08920th
Standard Downs+0.09783th+0.1128th
Goal to Go+0.32390th-0.19076th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.6%Rush 52.4%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
14.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
407.3
Pts/Drive
2.75
3rd Down%
38.7%
3&Out%
20.6%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCincinnatiOpponents
Scoring
Points394333
Points / Game30.325.6
First Downs
Total256295
Rushing115143
Passing129120
Penalty1232
Rushing
Attempts402537
Yards2,2892,324
Yards / Carry5.74.3
Yards / Game176.1178.8
Touchdowns2019
Passing
Attempts365389
Completions225260
Completion %61.6%66.8%
Yards3,0062,866
Yards / Attempt8.27.4
Touchdowns3020
Interceptions62
Passer Rating154.66144.66
Total Offense
Plays767926
Yards5,2955,190
Yards / Play6.95.6
Yards / Game407.3399.2
Punt Returns
Returns1610
Yards156111
Average9.811.1
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1118
Yards242309
Average22.017.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4147
Yards1,8611,829
Average45.438.9
Interception Returns
Returns26
Yards11640
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1321
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties9265
Yards846499
Yards / Game65.138.4
Time of Possession
Per Game24:0535:43
Third Downs
Attempts142187
Conversions5577
Conversion %38.7%41.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2436
Conversions1824
Conversion %75.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips4647
Scores (TD + FG)4238
Score %91.3%80.9%
Touchdowns3326
TD %71.7%55.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1719
Made1315
Pct76.5%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4934
Made4934
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts27
Made04
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →