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USM
Southern Miss
Golden EaglesBalancedSun Belt Conference3-7#100 (-4.85)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
22· DOverall
Offense
30· DRating
36· DPer play
24· DConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
22· DPer play
36· DConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.027
Defensive EPA/play
+0.104
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.131
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.019
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.07
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.32
own return game
Return Defense
+1.39
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#100
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#72
market 28 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 62 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Southern Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense36th
Opp-adjusted defense17th
Offensive EPA/play36th
Defensive EPA/play22th
Offensive success rate28th
Explosiveness65th
Defensive havoc20th
Points per drive43th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wake Forest2018OA +0.021 / -0.032similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate3932North Texas2019OA -0.041 / -0.097similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3653Pittsburgh2017OA +0.004 / -0.016similar: pass defense, passing offense, offensive EPA3644Houston2019OA +0.003 / -0.090similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3635Kentucky2017OA +0.002 / -0.044similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, pass defense359
2020 Schedule & Results
10 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs South Alabama | 21-32 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs Louisiana Tech | 30-31 | L | -5.5 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Tulane | 24-66 | L | +3.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 5 | @ North Texas | 41-31 | W | +1.5 | W | 71.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Liberty | 35-56 | L | +11.0 | L | 63 | O |
| 9 | vs Rice | 6-30 | L | -1.5 | L | 59.25 | U |
| 10 | vs North Alabama | 24-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ Western Kentucky | 7-10 | L | +5.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 12 | vs UTSA | 20-23 | L | +10.0 | W | 52 | U |
| 15 | vs Florida Atlantic | 45-31 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-5
44.4%
O/U Record
5-4
55.6%
Straight Up
3-7
30.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-1
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.030 | 35th | +0.093 | 21th |
| Red Zone | -0.030 | 47th | +0.194 | 12th |
| Third Down | +0.011 | 40th | +0.283 | 17th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.026 | 37th | +0.095 | 23th |
| First Half | -0.036 | 33th | +0.106 | 26th |
| Second Half | -0.024 | 37th | +0.079 | 32th |
| Early Downs | -0.088 | 18th | +0.060 | 27th |
| Passing Downs | -0.027 | 39th | +0.178 | 16th |
| Standard Downs | -0.032 | 37th | +0.051 | 33th |
| Goal to Go | +0.008 | 48th | +0.105 | 41th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.6%Rush 57.4%
Havoc/Game
10.7
Havoc Rate
14.8%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
372.0
Pts/Drive
2.07
3rd Down%
42.2%
3&Out%
19.8%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 10 games — Southern Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Southern Miss | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 253 | 323 |
| Points / Game | 25.3 | 32.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 188 | 215 |
| Rushing | 83 | 102 |
| Passing | 93 | 103 |
| Penalty | 12 | 10 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 369 | 403 |
| Yards | 1,590 | 1,809 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 159.0 | 180.9 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 274 | 294 |
| Completions | 171 | 185 |
| Completion % | 62.4% | 62.9% |
| Yards | 2,130 | 2,208 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 135.59 | 148.87 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 643 | 697 |
| Yards | 3,720 | 4,017 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 372.0 | 401.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 6 |
| Yards | 63 | 24 |
| Average | 7.0 | 4.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 31 | 23 |
| Yards | 678 | 501 |
| Average | 21.9 | 21.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 40 | 35 |
| Yards | 1,550 | 1,581 |
| Average | 38.8 | 45.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 9 |
| Yards | 41 | 123 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 14 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 44 | 44 |
| Yards | 367 | 374 |
| Yards / Game | 36.7 | 37.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:07 | 30:53 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 135 | 142 |
| Conversions | 57 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 42.2% | 47.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 21 |
| Conversions | 6 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 35.3% | 66.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 33 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 30 |
| Score % | 81.6% | 90.9% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 23 |
| TD % | 57.9% | 69.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 14 |
| Made | 12 | 10 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 41 |
| Made | 29 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 95.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.