Fourth Down Data
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VAN

Vanderbilt

CommodoresBalanced
Southeastern Conference0-9#127 (-13.37)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

2· FOverall
Offense
8· FRating
23· DPer play
29· DConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
2· FRating
7· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
53· CRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.059
Defensive EPA/play
+0.174
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.9%
Def Success Rate
55.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.232
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.144
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.43

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.92
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.79
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.73
own return game
Return Defense
-0.32
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#127
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#111
market 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Vanderbilt ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
24th
Opp-adjusted defense
3th
Offensive EPA/play
23th
Defensive EPA/play
7th
Offensive success rate
24th
Explosiveness
60th
Defensive havoc
12th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northwestern2022OA -0.118 / -0.038similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3802Tennessee2020OA -0.035 / -0.016similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3783Bowling Green2019OA -0.182 / -0.074similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3784Rutgers2026OA -0.094 / -0.063similar: run defense, TD drive rate, pass defense3695Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, run defense369

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
4@ Texas A&M12-17L+30.5W46U
5vs LSU7-41L+21.0L50.5U
6vs South Carolina7-41L+13.5L41.5O
9vs Ole Miss21-54L+16.5L64O
10@ Mississippi State17-24L+19.0W45.75U
11@ Kentucky35-38L+17.0W42.5O
12vs Florida17-38L+31.5W68U
13@ Missouri0-41L+14.0L51U
15vs Tennessee17-42L+15.0L50.75O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-5
44.4%
O/U Record
4-5
44.4%
Straight Up
0-9
0.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off17thRush Off16thRed Zone Off54th3rd Down Off12thPass Def59thRush Def1thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def51th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09415th+0.1439th
Red Zone+0.00654th+0.10029th
Third Down-0.20012th+0.07651th
No Garbage Time-0.07620th+0.1539th
First Half-0.10420th+0.1869th
Second Half-0.08417th+0.09524th
Early Downs-0.10115th+0.2210th
Passing Downs-0.11017th+0.02059th
Standard Downs-0.08516th+0.1931th
Goal to Go-0.25315th+0.16829th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.8%Rush 52.2%
Havoc/Game
9.2
Havoc Rate
13.3%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
330.0
Pts/Drive
1.43
3rd Down%
39.9%
3&Out%
25.6%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — Vanderbilt vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVanderbiltOpponents
Scoring
Points133336
Points / Game14.837.3
First Downs
Total182219
Rushing6892
Passing96117
Penalty1810
Rushing
Attempts329302
Yards9911,719
Yards / Carry3.05.7
Yards / Game110.1191.0
Touchdowns419
Passing
Attempts301301
Completions192221
Completion %63.8%73.4%
Yards1,9792,668
Yards / Attempt6.68.9
Touchdowns1324
Interceptions112
Passer Rating125.96172.86
Total Offense
Plays630603
Yards2,9704,387
Yards / Play4.77.3
Yards / Game330.0487.4
Punt Returns
Returns516
Yards46201
Average9.212.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1514
Yards336265
Average22.418.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5125
Yards2,0531,141
Average40.345.6
Interception Returns
Returns211
Yards32150
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1210
Lost67
Penalties
Penalties4259
Yards343501
Yards / Game38.155.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4230:18
Third Downs
Attempts13898
Conversions5543
Conversion %39.9%43.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2010
Conversions126
Conversion %60.0%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips2032
Scores (TD + FG)1429
Score %70.0%90.6%
Touchdowns1222
TD %60.0%68.8%
Field Goals
Attempts913
Made410
Pct44.4%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1742
Made1740
Pct100.0%95.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →