Fourth Down Data
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South Alabama

JaguarsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference2-10#123 (-14.78)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

9· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
18· DPer play
10· FConsistency
39· DBig plays
Defense
41· CRating
30· DPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
17· DRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
27· D3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.148
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.099
Defensive EPA/play
+0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.9%
Def Success Rate
48.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.152
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.141
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.49

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.17
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#123
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 48 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
42th
Offensive EPA/play
18th
Defensive EPA/play
30th
Offensive success rate
13th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
20th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UNLV2021OA -0.090 / -0.053similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, pass defense4192NC State2026OA -0.050 / -0.006similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, run defense3983UL Monroe2025OA -0.062 / -0.063similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, rushing offense3934Maryland2019OA -0.155 / -0.026similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3865Tennessee2020OA -0.035 / -0.016similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive EPA382

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Nebraska21-35L+35.0W65U
2vs Jackson State37-14W-25.0L47O
3vs Memphis6-42L+20.5L55U
4@ UAB3-35L+12.5L47.5U
5@ UL Monroe17-30L+14.5W59.5U
6vs Georgia Southern17-20L+10.0W45U
8@ Troy13-37L+17.5L55.5U
9vs App State3-30L+27.5W51U
11@ Texas State28-30L+7.0W41O
12vs Louisiana27-37L+27.5W52.5O
13@ Georgia State15-28L+9.5L57U
14vs Arkansas State34-30W+10.5W53O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS7-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off21thRush Off18thRed Zone Off17th3rd Down Off27thPass Def35thRush Def47thRed Zone Def42th3rd Down Def71th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10316th+0.02438th
Red Zone-0.21317th+0.02342th
Third Down-0.07327th-0.07171th
No Garbage Time-0.09917th+0.05628th
First Half-0.11316th+0.03735th
Second Half-0.09521th+0.00752th
Early Downs-0.08718th+0.02441th
Passing Downs-0.11021th+0.05835th
Standard Downs-0.10018th+0.00747th
Goal to Go-0.29018th-0.06154th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.7%Rush 64.3%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
330.3
Pts/Drive
1.49
3rd Down%
30.5%
3&Out%
28.7%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points221368
Points / Game18.430.7
First Downs
Total216255
Rushing106119
Passing83120
Penalty2716
Rushing
Attempts509524
Yards2,0572,306
Yards / Carry4.04.4
Yards / Game171.4192.2
Touchdowns1517
Passing
Attempts282326
Completions149210
Completion %52.8%64.4%
Yards1,9062,599
Yards / Attempt6.88.0
Touchdowns1422
Interceptions119
Passer Rating118.19148.13
Total Offense
Plays791850
Yards3,9634,905
Yards / Play5.05.8
Yards / Game330.3408.8
Punt Returns
Returns1221
Yards41267
Average3.412.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3623
Yards712624
Average19.827.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6749
Yards2,8282,084
Average42.242.5
Interception Returns
Returns911
Yards37125
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1716
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties6979
Yards540687
Yards / Game45.057.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3331:27
Third Downs
Attempts167172
Conversions5171
Conversion %30.5%41.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2617
Conversions1210
Conversion %46.2%58.8%
Red Zone
Trips3653
Scores (TD + FG)2647
Score %72.2%88.7%
Touchdowns1930
TD %52.8%56.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1328
Made820
Pct61.5%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2343
Made2142
Pct91.3%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts61
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →