Fourth Down Data
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RUTG

Rutgers

Scarlet KnightsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference4-8#90 (-5.58)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
19· DRating
6· FPer play
3· FConsistency
0· FBig plays
Defense
42· CRating
54· CPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
25· DRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
9· F3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.112
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.207
Defensive EPA/play
-0.030
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.8%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.177
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.245
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.35

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.94
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.52
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#90
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#49
recruiting 41 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rutgers ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
11th
Opp-adjusted defense
54th
Offensive EPA/play
6th
Defensive EPA/play
55th
Offensive success rate
3th
Explosiveness
0th
Defensive havoc
35th
Points per drive
5th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ball State2025OA -0.172 / -0.060similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, takeaway rate4072Maryland2019OA -0.155 / -0.026similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense4053Navy2020OA -0.047 / -0.009similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3894Northern Illinois2026OA -0.089 / -0.010similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3815South Alabama2019OA -0.148 / -0.021similar: rushing offense, run defense, TD drive rate380

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Washington14-30L+28.0W54.5U
2vs Eastern Michigan13-16L-5.5L51U
3vs Morgan State65-0W-41.0W--
4@ Nebraska17-27L+12.5W48U
5vs Ohio State0-56L+28.5L54.5O
7@ Illinois35-24W-1.5W48O
8vs Purdue14-12W+9.5W49U
9@ Michigan14-35L+22.0W43O
10vs Maryland31-24W+5.0W49.5O
11@ Penn State6-35L+31.0W57U
12@ Indiana0-41L+10.5L46.5U
13vs Michigan State7-40L+13.5L43O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS6-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off3thRush Off8thRed Zone Off26th3rd Down Off9thPass Def59thRush Def44thRed Zone Def31th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2125th-0.02753th
Red Zone-0.10126th+0.10031th
Third Down-0.3559th-0.01250th
No Garbage Time-0.2066th-0.02453th
First Half-0.1819th-0.08566th
Second Half-0.2455th+0.02631th
Early Downs-0.10520th-0.01241th
Passing Downs-0.3153th-0.04559th
Standard Downs-0.1548th-0.01744th
Goal to Go-0.14430th-0.15873th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.7%Rush 61.3%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
9.1
Yards/Game
262.7
Pts/Drive
1.35
3rd Down%
32.1%
3&Out%
37.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Rutgers vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRutgersOpponents
Scoring
Points216340
Points / Game18.028.3
First Downs
Total165243
Rushing8797
Passing59130
Penalty1916
Rushing
Attempts436475
Yards1,7652,182
Yards / Carry4.04.6
Yards / Game147.1181.8
Touchdowns1921
Passing
Attempts275361
Completions135206
Completion %49.1%57.1%
Yards1,3872,601
Yards / Attempt5.07.2
Touchdowns719
Interceptions1112
Passer Rating91.86128.31
Total Offense
Plays711836
Yards3,1524,783
Yards / Play4.45.7
Yards / Game262.7398.6
Punt Returns
Returns1826
Yards121245
Average6.79.4
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns4130
Yards714541
Average17.418.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7962
Yards3,5082,350
Average44.437.9
Interception Returns
Returns1211
Yards154115
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1314
Lost93
Penalties
Penalties7182
Yards601687
Yards / Game50.157.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3031:30
Third Downs
Attempts162177
Conversions5268
Conversion %32.1%38.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1415
Conversions49
Conversion %28.6%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips3049
Scores (TD + FG)2446
Score %80.0%93.9%
Touchdowns1831
TD %60.0%63.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1021
Made718
Pct70.0%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2740
Made2740
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →