Fourth Down Data
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NAVY

Navy

MidshipmenRun-Heavy
American Conference3-7#112 (-6.56)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

13· FOverall
Offense
7· FRating
11· FPer play
6· FConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
44· CPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.047
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.142
Defensive EPA/play
+0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.9%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.184
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.310
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.35

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.78
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.90
own return game
Return Defense
+0.64
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#112
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#88
market 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 74 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Navy ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
8th
Opp-adjusted defense
45th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
45th
Offensive success rate
5th
Explosiveness
20th
Defensive havoc
11th
Points per drive
8th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Rutgers2017OA -0.112 / +0.007similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3892Northern Illinois2019OA -0.044 / -0.008similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3453Ball State2025OA -0.172 / -0.060similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3384Georgia Tech2019OA -0.075 / -0.064similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3375Florida International2020OA -0.050 / -0.019similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate326

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs BYU3-55L+1.5L48.5O
3@ Tulane27-24W+6.5W48.5O
5@ Air Force7-40L-7.0L46.5O
6vs Temple31-29W+3.5W50.5O
7@ East Carolina27-23W+1.0W58U
8vs Houston21-37L+14.5L55.5O
9@ SMU37-51L+12.5L58.5O
13vs Memphis7-10L+13.5W62.5U
14vs Tulsa6-19L+12.0L48.5U
15@ Army0-15L+7.5L36.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-6
40.0%
O/U Record
6-4
60.0%
Straight Up
3-7
30.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off15thRush Off10thRed Zone Off30th3rd Down Off32thPass Def40thRush Def49thRed Zone Def57th3rd Down Def38th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1308th+0.04642th
Red Zone-0.09030th-0.04157th
Third Down-0.02632th+0.11838th
No Garbage Time-0.1579th+0.04644th
First Half-0.1829th+0.02446th
Second Half-0.08318th+0.07234th
Early Downs-0.1654th+0.01346th
Passing Downs-0.14915th+0.08940th
Standard Downs-0.11910th+0.02549th
Goal to Go+0.14967th+0.13136th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 20.4%Rush 79.6%
Havoc/Game
8.9
Havoc Rate
13.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
11.5
Yards/Game
275.0
Pts/Drive
1.35
3rd Down%
33.8%
3&Out%
35.0%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — Navy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNavyOpponents
Scoring
Points166303
Points / Game16.630.3
First Downs
Total143198
Rushing100105
Passing3680
Penalty713
Rushing
Attempts483414
Yards1,7762,047
Yards / Carry3.74.9
Yards / Game177.6204.7
Touchdowns1523
Passing
Attempts124230
Completions57140
Completion %46.0%60.9%
Yards9741,808
Yards / Attempt7.97.9
Touchdowns611
Interceptions43
Passer Rating121.46140.07
Total Offense
Plays607644
Yards2,7503,855
Yards / Play4.56.0
Yards / Game275.0385.5
Punt Returns
Returns109
Yards2670
Average2.67.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1314
Yards284234
Average21.816.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5334
Yards1,9321,367
Average36.540.2
Interception Returns
Returns34
Yards2561
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1113
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties4446
Yards402366
Yards / Game40.236.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2629:35
Third Downs
Attempts139126
Conversions4748
Conversion %33.8%38.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3018
Conversions2012
Conversion %66.7%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips2144
Scores (TD + FG)1740
Score %81.0%90.9%
Touchdowns1323
TD %61.9%52.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1025
Made622
Pct60.0%88.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1832
Made1631
Pct88.9%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →