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BALL
Ball State
CardinalsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference4-8#132 (-20.19)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
3· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
10· FPer play
6· FConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
16· DRating
43· CPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
5· FRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.172
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.131
Defensive EPA/play
+0.005
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.6%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.137
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.29
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.11
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#132
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#131
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 53 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense3th
Opp-adjusted defense27th
Offensive EPA/play10th
Defensive EPA/play43th
Offensive success rate4th
Explosiveness16th
Defensive havoc25th
Points per drive6th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Rutgers2017OA -0.112 / +0.007similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, takeaway rate4072Tennessee2017OA -0.057 / +0.052similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3773Kennesaw State2024OA -0.085 / -0.027similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, pass defense3774South Alabama2019OA -0.148 / -0.021similar: run defense, passing offense, havoc rate3715Akron2024OA -0.044 / -0.031similar: rushing offense, passing offense, turnover rate368
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Purdue | 0-31 | L | +17.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Auburn | 3-42 | L | +42.5 | W | 53 | U |
| 3 | vs New Hampshire | 34-29 | W | -1.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 4 | @ UConn | 25-31 | L | +13.5 | W | 40.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Ohio | 20-14 | W | +14.5 | W | 51 | U |
| 7 | @ Western Michigan | 0-42 | L | +28.5 | L | 37.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Akron | 42-28 | W | -5.5 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Northern Illinois | 7-21 | L | +6.5 | L | 31.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Kent State | 17-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs Eastern Michigan | 9-24 | L | +2.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Toledo | 9-38 | L | +34.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Miami (OH) | 24-45 | L | +17.5 | L | 41.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS3-0
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.122 | 9th | -0.001 | 44th |
| Red Zone | -0.326 | 5th | +0.010 | 45th |
| Third Down | -0.046 | 26th | +0.233 | 12th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.119 | 13th | +0.009 | 39th |
| First Half | -0.200 | 4th | +0.038 | 30th |
| Second Half | -0.043 | 36th | -0.041 | 61th |
| Early Downs | -0.165 | 4th | +0.019 | 30th |
| Passing Downs | -0.186 | 15th | -0.024 | 50th |
| Standard Downs | -0.082 | 15th | +0.010 | 43th |
| Goal to Go | -0.404 | 7th | +0.105 | 37th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.1%Rush 61.9%
Havoc/Game
11.4
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
10.9
Yards/Game
271.7
Pts/Drive
1.29
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
30.8%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ball State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 190 | 358 |
| Points / Game | 15.8 | 29.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 178 | 250 |
| Rushing | 77 | 108 |
| Passing | 76 | 128 |
| Penalty | 25 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 452 | 453 |
| Yards | 1,581 | 2,146 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 131.8 | 178.8 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 278 | 354 |
| Completions | 157 | 219 |
| Completion % | 56.5% | 61.9% |
| Yards | 1,679 | 2,722 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.0 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 115.70 | 142.81 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 730 | 807 |
| Yards | 3,260 | 4,868 |
| Yards / Play | 4.5 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 271.7 | 405.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 23 |
| Yards | 25 | 196 |
| Average | 2.1 | 8.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 28 |
| Yards | 584 | 513 |
| Average | 20.1 | 18.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 71 | 44 |
| Yards | 2,847 | 1,861 |
| Average | 40.1 | 42.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 8 |
| Yards | 48 | 60 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 15 |
| Lost | 8 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 56 | 75 |
| Yards | 466 | 673 |
| Yards / Game | 38.8 | 56.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:36 | 30:24 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 159 |
| Conversions | 58 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 33.5% | 42.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 26 |
| Conversions | 9 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 52.9% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 27 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 19 | 35 |
| Score % | 70.4% | 81.4% |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 27 |
| TD % | 44.4% | 62.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 17 |
| Made | 9 | 11 |
| Pct | 56.3% | 64.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 45 |
| Made | 19 | 45 |
| Pct | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.