Fourth Down Data
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MRSH

Marshall

Thundering HerdRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference5-7#95 (-6.75)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

30· DOverall
Offense
45· CRating
59· CPer play
64· CConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
20· DRating
44· CPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
17· D3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.027
Defensive EPA/play
-0.004
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
44.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.030
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.153
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.55
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#95
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#76
market 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 16 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Marshall ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
56th
Opp-adjusted defense
41th
Offensive EPA/play
60th
Defensive EPA/play
44th
Offensive success rate
53th
Explosiveness
45th
Defensive havoc
74th
Points per drive
62th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3812North Carolina2019OA +0.113 / -0.014similar: turnover rate, run defense, takeaway rate3603Tulane2023OA -0.001 / +0.033similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, havoc rate3294UTSA2024OA +0.005 / +0.018similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3245Kansas State2017OA +0.021 / +0.012similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, takeaway rate324

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Georgia7-45L+45.3W51O
2vs Missouri State20-21L-7.0L53.5U
3vs Eastern Kentucky38-7W-14.5W49U
4@ Middle Tennessee42-28W-2.5W46.5O
5@ Louisiana51-54L-2.3L48O
7vs Old Dominion48-24W-20.5W68.5O
8vs Texas State40-37W+2.5W48.5O
10@ Coastal Carolina27-44L----
11vs James Madison23-35L+13.5W54.5O
12@ Georgia State30-18W-7.5W54.5U
13@ App State24-26L-4.5L63.5U
14vs Georgia Southern19-24L-10.0L63.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off55thRed Zone Off23th3rd Down Off17thPass Def53thRush Def35thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def43th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00745th+0.00443th
Red Zone-0.13023th-0.11773th
Third Down-0.13917th+0.10143th
No Garbage Time+0.02761th-0.00445th
First Half+0.01453th-0.02551th
Second Half-0.02943th+0.03334th
Early Downs+0.05476th+0.01431th
Passing Downs-0.05639th-0.03953th
Standard Downs+0.01855th+0.02735th
Goal to Go-0.09935th+0.03544th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.1%Rush 59.9%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
404.9
Pts/Drive
2.41
3rd Down%
35.4%
3&Out%
18.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Marshall vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarshallOpponents
Scoring
Points369363
Points / Game30.830.3
First Downs
Total255239
Rushing11586
Passing122129
Penalty1824
Rushing
Attempts501459
Yards2,3641,787
Yards / Carry4.73.9
Yards / Game197.0148.9
Touchdowns2321
Passing
Attempts335368
Completions218215
Completion %65.1%58.4%
Yards2,4953,140
Yards / Attempt7.48.5
Touchdowns1824
Interceptions613
Passer Rating141.79144.55
Total Offense
Plays836827
Yards4,8594,927
Yards / Play5.86.0
Yards / Game404.9410.6
Punt Returns
Returns2114
Yards20669
Average9.84.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns269
Yards560207
Average21.523.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5757
Yards2,5512,473
Average44.843.4
Interception Returns
Returns136
Yards21938
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1317
Lost98
Penalties
Penalties8264
Yards719550
Yards / Game59.945.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3230:03
Third Downs
Attempts164183
Conversions5873
Conversion %35.4%39.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1621
Conversions711
Conversion %43.8%52.4%
Red Zone
Trips4946
Scores (TD + FG)4038
Score %81.6%82.6%
Touchdowns2728
TD %55.1%60.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2621
Made2116
Pct80.8%76.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3941
Made3841
Pct97.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →