Fourth Down Data
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TULN

Tulane

Green WaveRun-Heavy
American Conference11-3#47 (+3.13)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

65· COverall
Offense
54· CRating
44· CPer play
43· CConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
65· CPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
9· FRed-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
42· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.033
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.007
Defensive EPA/play
-0.032
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.171
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.98
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.55
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#47
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#20
market 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 29 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulane ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
64th
Offensive EPA/play
44th
Defensive EPA/play
66th
Offensive success rate
40th
Explosiveness
19th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2018OA -0.010 / +0.064similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3592Arizona State2019OA -0.037 / +0.042similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3553South Carolina2017OA +0.025 / +0.081similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3534Marshall2025OA +0.006 / -0.022similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, havoc rate3305UTSA2017OA -0.040 / +0.039similar: run defense, takeaway rate, offensive success rate324

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Alabama37-17W-6.5W51.75O
2vs Ole Miss20-37L+7.5L65U
3@ Southern Miss21-3W-12.8W49.5U
4vs Nicholls State36-7W-38.0L57.5U
5vs UAB35-23W-21.5L58.5U
7@ Memphis31-21W----
8vs North Texas35-28W-20.0L63P
9@ Rice30-28W-10.5L54.5O
10@ East Carolina13-10W-16.5L47.5U
11vs Tulsa24-22W-23.0L53.5U
12@ Florida Atlantic24-8W-3.5W52U
13vs UTSA29-16W----
14vs SMU14-26L-3.0L47U
18vs Virginia Tech20-41L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-9
35.7%
O/U Record
3-10-1
23.1%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS2-7
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS5-7
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off55thRush Off36thRed Zone Off9th3rd Down Off59thPass Def77thRush Def54thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def42th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00844th-0.02764th
Red Zone-0.2209th+0.04136th
Third Down+0.22559th+0.19642th
No Garbage Time-0.00644th-0.02964th
First Half+0.03256th-0.06380th
Second Half-0.04535th+0.01646th
Early Downs-0.05739th-0.03246th
Passing Downs+0.06555th-0.02977th
Standard Downs-0.04536th-0.02654th
Goal to Go-0.3265th-0.01152th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.1%Rush 58.9%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
21.1%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
370.1
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
37.8%
3&Out%
18.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — Tulane vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulaneOpponents
Scoring
Points369287
Points / Game26.420.5
First Downs
Total260268
Rushing11896
Passing130151
Penalty1221
Rushing
Attempts527445
Yards2,1711,578
Yards / Carry4.13.5
Yards / Game155.1112.7
Touchdowns1614
Passing
Attempts368473
Completions229309
Completion %62.2%65.3%
Yards3,0103,200
Yards / Attempt8.26.8
Touchdowns2518
Interceptions717
Passer Rating149.55127.53
Total Offense
Plays895918
Yards5,1814,778
Yards / Play5.85.2
Yards / Game370.1341.3
Punt Returns
Returns1411
Yards14677
Average10.47.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2727
Yards670513
Average24.819.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4951
Yards2,1242,007
Average43.339.4
Interception Returns
Returns177
Yards138124
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1617
Lost1310
Penalties
Penalties6763
Yards600501
Yards / Game42.935.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2128:38
Third Downs
Attempts185186
Conversions7068
Conversion %37.8%36.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3237
Conversions1917
Conversion %59.4%45.9%
Red Zone
Trips5946
Scores (TD + FG)4441
Score %74.6%89.1%
Touchdowns2927
TD %49.2%58.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2622
Made2119
Pct80.8%86.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4230
Made4230
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →