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TROY
Troy
TrojansBalancedSun Belt Conference10-3#23 (+6.75)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
82· BOverall
Offense
46· CRating
44· CPer play
21· DConsistency
28· DBig plays
Defense
82· BRating
68· CPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.010
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.064
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.011
Defensive EPA/play
-0.065
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.5%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.054
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.203
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#23
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 54 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Troy ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense39th
Opp-adjusted defense73th
Offensive EPA/play45th
Defensive EPA/play69th
Offensive success rate22th
Explosiveness28th
Defensive havoc93th
Points per drive61th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tulane2023OA -0.001 / +0.033similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3582Arizona State2019OA -0.037 / +0.042similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3383Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: run defense, passing offense, turnover rate3374Central Michigan2025OA -0.078 / +0.006similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3345South Carolina2017OA +0.025 / +0.081similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate332
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Boise State | 20-56 | L | +2.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Florida A&M | 59-7 | W | -34.5 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Nebraska | 24-19 | W | +13.0 | W | 55 | U |
| 4 | @ UL Monroe | 35-27 | W | -4.5 | W | 59 | O |
| 5 | vs Coastal Carolina | 45-21 | W | -13.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Georgia State | 37-20 | W | -17.0 | P | 55.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Liberty | 16-22 | L | -12.0 | L | 62.5 | U |
| 9 | @ South Alabama | 38-17 | W | -11.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Louisiana | 26-16 | W | -7.5 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Georgia Southern | 35-21 | W | -2.0 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Texas State | 12-7 | W | -23.0 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 13 | @ App State | 10-21 | L | +12.0 | W | 45 | U |
| 17 | vs Buffalo | 42-32 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-2-1
81.8%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.021 | 38th | -0.048 | 68th |
| Red Zone | -0.034 | 37th | +0.008 | 50th |
| Third Down | +0.292 | 91th | +0.001 | 59th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.011 | 42th | -0.074 | 72th |
| First Half | +0.028 | 60th | -0.050 | 62th |
| Second Half | -0.075 | 20th | -0.046 | 70th |
| Early Downs | -0.087 | 16th | -0.046 | 58th |
| Passing Downs | +0.024 | 58th | -0.074 | 67th |
| Standard Downs | -0.046 | 27th | -0.033 | 58th |
| Goal to Go | -0.154 | 17th | +0.252 | 23th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.4%Rush 56.6%
Havoc/Game
16.6
Havoc Rate
23.4%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
389.4
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
38.1%
3&Out%
26.3%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Troy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Troy | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 399 | 286 |
| Points / Game | 30.7 | 22.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 247 | 240 |
| Rushing | 107 | 100 |
| Passing | 120 | 121 |
| Penalty | 20 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 485 | 508 |
| Yards | 2,263 | 1,673 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 174.1 | 128.7 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 372 | 388 |
| Completions | 248 | 227 |
| Completion % | 66.7% | 58.5% |
| Yards | 2,799 | 2,850 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 18 |
| Passer Rating | 147.75 | 127.09 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 857 | 896 |
| Yards | 5,062 | 4,523 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 389.4 | 347.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 11 |
| Yards | 220 | 66 |
| Average | 9.6 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 37 | 27 |
| Yards | 925 | 601 |
| Average | 25.0 | 22.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 71 |
| Yards | 2,518 | 2,701 |
| Average | 45.0 | 38.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 8 |
| Yards | 322 | 85 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 27 |
| Lost | 13 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 92 | 75 |
| Yards | 736 | 684 |
| Yards / Game | 56.6 | 52.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:03 | 29:57 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 181 | 191 |
| Conversions | 69 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 38.1% | 38.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 20 |
| Conversions | 11 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 47.8% | 65.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 46 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 34 |
| Score % | 82.6% | 77.3% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 28 |
| TD % | 60.9% | 63.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 15 |
| Made | 18 | 7 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 46.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 45 | 32 |
| Made | 45 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 6 |
| Made | 2 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.