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ASU
Arizona State
Sun DevilsBalancedBig 12 Conference8-5#48 (+3.36)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
64· COverall
Offense
34· DRating
38· DPer play
30· DConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
62· CPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
42· C3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.023
Defensive EPA/play
-0.028
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.004
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.090
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.87
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.84
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.80
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#48
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#33
recruiting 15 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Arizona State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense37th
Opp-adjusted defense68th
Offensive EPA/play38th
Defensive EPA/play63th
Offensive success rate26th
Explosiveness35th
Defensive havoc68th
Points per drive32th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1California2024OA -0.026 / +0.026similar: pass defense, passing offense, havoc rate3602Tulane2023OA -0.001 / +0.033similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3533Cincinnati2022OA -0.058 / +0.081similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3524Central Michigan2025OA -0.078 / +0.006similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3415Troy2018OA -0.010 / +0.064similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate338
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Kent State | 30-7 | W | -3.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Sacramento State | 19-7 | W | -35.0 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Michigan State | 10-7 | W | +15.5 | W | 42 | U |
| 4 | vs Colorado | 31-34 | L | -7.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 5 | @ California | 24-17 | W | +4.0 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Washington State | 38-34 | W | +2.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 8 | @ Utah | 3-21 | L | +16.0 | L | 46 | U |
| 9 | @ UCLA | 32-42 | L | -3.0 | L | 56 | O |
| 11 | vs USC | 26-31 | L | +4.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Oregon State | 34-35 | L | -1.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Oregon | 31-28 | W | +14.0 | W | 55 | O |
| 14 | vs Arizona | 24-14 | W | -13.0 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 19 | vs Florida State | 20-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.019 | 37th | -0.035 | 67th |
| Red Zone | -0.214 | 16th | +0.175 | 11th |
| Third Down | -0.001 | 43th | +0.091 | 35th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.031 | 37th | -0.031 | 64th |
| First Half | -0.085 | 19th | +0.031 | 37th |
| Second Half | +0.038 | 60th | -0.110 | 88th |
| Early Downs | -0.079 | 20th | -0.041 | 69th |
| Passing Downs | +0.134 | 78th | -0.046 | 60th |
| Standard Downs | -0.102 | 17th | -0.029 | 65th |
| Goal to Go | -0.501 | 5th | +0.314 | 7th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.5%Rush 54.5%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
372.1
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
23.5%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Arizona State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Arizona State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 322 | 291 |
| Points / Game | 24.8 | 22.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 233 | 273 |
| Rushing | 88 | 94 |
| Passing | 125 | 155 |
| Penalty | 20 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 459 | 463 |
| Yards | 1,602 | 1,626 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 123.2 | 125.1 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 383 | 465 |
| Completions | 233 | 296 |
| Completion % | 60.8% | 63.7% |
| Yards | 3,235 | 3,487 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.4 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 147.79 | 138.09 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 842 | 928 |
| Yards | 4,837 | 5,113 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 372.1 | 393.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 20 |
| Yards | 247 | 154 |
| Average | 13.0 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 37 |
| Yards | 606 | 779 |
| Average | 26.3 | 21.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 67 | 64 |
| Yards | 3,082 | 2,726 |
| Average | 46.0 | 42.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 4 |
| Yards | 113 | 7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 26 |
| Lost | 10 | 15 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 85 | 81 |
| Yards | 818 | 678 |
| Yards / Game | 62.9 | 52.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:14 | 30:46 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 187 | 192 |
| Conversions | 72 | 79 |
| Conversion % | 38.5% | 41.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 24 |
| Conversions | 9 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 56.3% | 54.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 45 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 31 |
| Score % | 91.1% | 79.5% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 28 |
| TD % | 44.4% | 71.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 12 |
| Made | 23 | 6 |
| Pct | 85.2% | 50.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 39 |
| Made | 29 | 39 |
| Pct | 96.7% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 0 |
| Made | 4 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.