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CIN
Cincinnati
BearcatsBalancedBig 12 Conference9-4#17 (+6.99)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
87· BOverall
Offense
40· CRating
39· DPer play
29· DConsistency
14· FBig plays
Defense
91· A-Rating
69· CPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.081
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.055
Defensive EPA/play
-0.080
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.155
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+3.75
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.40
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.56
own return game
Return Defense
+1.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#12
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
model 36 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense34th
Opp-adjusted defense81th
Offensive EPA/play40th
Defensive EPA/play70th
Offensive success rate33th
Explosiveness14th
Defensive havoc68th
Points per drive39th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Bowling Green2024OA +0.012 / +0.012similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3772California2024OA -0.026 / +0.026similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate3633Arkansas2023OA -0.006 / +0.064similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3584Penn State2021OA -0.022 / +0.125similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, run defense3555Arizona State2019OA -0.037 / +0.042similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense352
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Arkansas | 24-31 | L | +6.5 | L | 52 | O |
| 2 | vs Kennesaw State | 63-10 | W | -28.5 | W | 49 | O |
| 3 | @ Miami (OH) | 38-17 | W | -22.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Indiana | 45-24 | W | -16.5 | W | 57.25 | O |
| 5 | @ Tulsa | 31-21 | W | -9.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 6 | vs South Florida | 28-24 | W | -27.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 8 | @ SMU | 29-27 | W | -3.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 9 | @ UCF | 21-25 | L | +1.5 | L | 56 | U |
| 10 | vs Navy | 20-10 | W | -5.0 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 11 | vs East Carolina | 27-25 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Temple | 23-3 | W | -2.0 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Tulane | 24-27 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 16 | @ Louisville | 7-24 | L | +2.0 | L | 39.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS0-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.036 | 44th | -0.069 | 70th |
| Red Zone | -0.054 | 36th | +0.010 | 45th |
| Third Down | -0.036 | 30th | +0.033 | 57th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.047 | 42th | -0.085 | 73th |
| First Half | -0.008 | 47th | -0.084 | 74th |
| Second Half | -0.067 | 36th | -0.054 | 62th |
| Early Downs | -0.017 | 50th | -0.108 | 84th |
| Passing Downs | -0.067 | 37th | +0.002 | 43th |
| Standard Downs | -0.019 | 47th | -0.113 | 85th |
| Goal to Go | -0.281 | 17th | -0.180 | 70th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.3%Rush 50.7%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
19.8%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
373.2
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
21.2%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 380 | 268 |
| Points / Game | 29.2 | 20.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 242 | 266 |
| Rushing | 86 | 117 |
| Passing | 146 | 114 |
| Penalty | 10 | 35 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 426 | 553 |
| Yards | 1,697 | 1,992 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 130.5 | 153.2 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 415 | 392 |
| Completions | 248 | 215 |
| Completion % | 59.8% | 54.8% |
| Yards | 3,155 | 2,369 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 137.26 | 112.63 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 841 | 945 |
| Yards | 4,852 | 4,361 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 373.2 | 335.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 24 |
| Yards | 159 | 80 |
| Average | 11.4 | 3.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 20 |
| Yards | 496 | 318 |
| Average | 21.6 | 15.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,907 | 2,983 |
| Average | 46.1 | 40.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 8 |
| Yards | 149 | 55 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 24 |
| Lost | 6 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 100 | 48 |
| Yards | 867 | 431 |
| Yards / Game | 66.7 | 33.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:16 | 31:39 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 180 | 205 |
| Conversions | 66 | 79 |
| Conversion % | 36.7% | 38.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 24 |
| Conversions | 13 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 65.0% | 45.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 41 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 32 |
| Score % | 90.2% | 76.2% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 24 |
| TD % | 53.7% | 57.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 16 |
| Made | 19 | 12 |
| Pct | 82.6% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 45 | 30 |
| Made | 45 | 30 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.