Fourth Down Data
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CAL

California

Golden BearsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#64 (+1.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

52· COverall
Offense
19· DRating
27· DPer play
14· FConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
72· BPer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
24· DRed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
47· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.026
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.026
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.051
Defensive EPA/play
-0.065
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.1%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.014
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.096
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.52
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#64
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#56
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#44
recruiting 20 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
23th
Opp-adjusted defense
72th
Offensive EPA/play
28th
Defensive EPA/play
72th
Offensive success rate
11th
Explosiveness
16th
Defensive havoc
72th
Points per drive
25th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Cincinnati2022OA -0.058 / +0.081similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate3632Arizona State2019OA -0.037 / +0.042similar: pass defense, passing offense, havoc rate3603Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3544Pittsburgh2020OA -0.017 / +0.037similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3465LSU2025OA -0.015 / +0.133similar: run defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate343

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UC Davis31-13W-20.5L54U
2@ Auburn21-14W+12.0W53.5U
3vs San Diego State31-10W-18.5W48U
4@ Florida State9-14L+2.5L44.5U
6vs Miami38-39L+10.5W53.5O
7@ Pittsburgh15-17L+3.5W59.5U
8vs NC State23-24L-10.0L46.5O
9vs Oregon State44-7W-9.5W49.25O
11@ Wake Forest46-36W----
12vs Syracuse25-33L-8.0L55.5O
13vs Stanford24-21W-14.0L54U
14@ SMU6-38L+13.5L57U
17@ UNLV13-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off16thRed Zone Off59th3rd Down Off43thPass Def60thRush Def63thRed Zone Def25th3rd Down Def48th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05622th-0.04471th
Red Zone+0.04159th+0.11025th
Third Down+0.07543th+0.08648th
No Garbage Time-0.04728th-0.05972th
First Half-0.03837th-0.00847th
Second Half-0.07218th-0.08483th
Early Downs-0.08717th-0.12991th
Passing Downs-0.01836th-0.04360th
Standard Downs-0.07816th-0.04563th
Goal to Go-0.29411th+0.2479th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.1%Rush 48.9%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
20.9%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
380.2
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
20.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCaliforniaOpponents
Scoring
Points326290
Points / Game25.122.3
First Downs
Total272238
Rushing9274
Passing155140
Penalty2524
Rushing
Attempts444437
Yards1,5801,428
Yards / Carry3.63.3
Yards / Game121.5109.8
Touchdowns1719
Passing
Attempts464442
Completions302250
Completion %65.1%56.6%
Yards3,3622,959
Yards / Attempt7.26.7
Touchdowns1617
Interceptions717
Passer Rating134.31117.80
Total Offense
Plays908879
Yards4,9424,387
Yards / Play5.45.0
Yards / Game380.2337.5
Punt Returns
Returns1919
Yards101179
Average5.39.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1614
Yards351266
Average21.919.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5764
Yards2,5792,826
Average45.244.2
Interception Returns
Returns177
Yards111108
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1214
Lost45
Penalties
Penalties9686
Yards776784
Yards / Game59.760.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3029:25
Third Downs
Attempts193186
Conversions7262
Conversion %37.3%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2738
Conversions1224
Conversion %44.4%63.2%
Red Zone
Trips4734
Scores (TD + FG)3928
Score %83.0%82.4%
Touchdowns2424
TD %51.1%70.6%
Field Goals
Attempts3716
Made2510
Pct67.6%62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2935
Made2934
Pct100.0%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts72
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →