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ARK
Arkansas
RazorbacksRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference4-8#70 (-0.25)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
48· COverall
Offense
34· DRating
18· DPer play
13· FConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
61· CRating
64· CPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
70· B3rd down O
82· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.064
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.081
Defensive EPA/play
-0.028
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
45.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.053
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.072
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.83
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.59
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.25
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#70
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#46
market 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
#25
recruiting 45 spots higher
19 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Arkansas ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense47th
Opp-adjusted defense81th
Offensive EPA/play18th
Defensive EPA/play64th
Offensive success rate21th
Explosiveness9th
Defensive havoc69th
Points per drive25th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, run defense3672Florida2017OA +0.003 / +0.060similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3673Cincinnati2022OA -0.058 / +0.081similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3584Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3465Missouri2022OA -0.024 / +0.119similar: pass defense, turnover rate, takeaway rate341
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Western Carolina | 56-13 | W | -34.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Kent State | 28-6 | W | -38.0 | L | 58 | U |
| 3 | vs BYU | 31-38 | L | -8.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 4 | @ LSU | 31-34 | L | +17.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Texas A&M | 22-34 | L | +6.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Ole Miss | 20-27 | L | +11.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Alabama | 21-24 | L | +19.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Mississippi State | 3-7 | L | -6.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Florida | 39-36 | W | +6.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Auburn | 10-48 | L | -3.0 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Florida International | 44-20 | W | +7.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Missouri | 14-48 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-7
Away ATS4-0
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.065 | 21th | -0.024 | 62th |
| Red Zone | +0.070 | 66th | -0.039 | 56th |
| Third Down | +0.285 | 70th | +0.021 | 83th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.072 | 21th | -0.025 | 61th |
| First Half | -0.109 | 14th | -0.006 | 58th |
| Second Half | -0.025 | 40th | -0.045 | 68th |
| Early Downs | -0.172 | 6th | -0.033 | 47th |
| Passing Downs | +0.061 | 53th | -0.011 | 69th |
| Standard Downs | -0.141 | 7th | -0.031 | 56th |
| Goal to Go | +0.150 | 77th | -0.130 | 69th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.6%Rush 59.4%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
11.9
Yards/Game
326.5
Pts/Drive
1.83
3rd Down%
38.3%
3&Out%
27.3%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Arkansas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Arkansas | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 319 | 335 |
| Points / Game | 26.6 | 27.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 208 | 226 |
| Rushing | 95 | 100 |
| Passing | 97 | 103 |
| Penalty | 16 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 472 | 437 |
| Yards | 1,668 | 1,853 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 139.0 | 154.4 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 323 | 318 |
| Completions | 207 | 192 |
| Completion % | 64.1% | 60.4% |
| Yards | 2,250 | 2,433 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 140.12 | 140.97 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 795 | 755 |
| Yards | 3,918 | 4,286 |
| Yards / Play | 4.9 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 326.5 | 357.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 18 |
| Yards | 180 | 345 |
| Average | 12.0 | 19.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 9 |
| Yards | 500 | 209 |
| Average | 21.7 | 23.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 60 |
| Yards | 2,770 | 2,580 |
| Average | 46.9 | 43.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 8 |
| Yards | 235 | 80 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 12 |
| Lost | 10 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 76 | 65 |
| Yards | 665 | 515 |
| Yards / Game | 55.4 | 42.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:44 | 29:16 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 175 | 158 |
| Conversions | 67 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 38.3% | 37.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 12 |
| Conversions | 10 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 62.5% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 34 | 42 |
| Score % | 91.9% | 89.4% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 27 |
| TD % | 62.2% | 57.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 26 |
| Made | 20 | 19 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 73.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 39 |
| Made | 33 | 38 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.